By Bilesanmi Abayomi
The political dynamics surrounding the 2027 Lagos State House of Assembly elections in Kosofe Constituency 2 appear to have taken an unexpected turn, with the fate of Hon. Femi Saheed’s bid for another term highlighting the growing influence of grassroots structures in determining political outcomes.
The development is particularly striking given the earlier support Saheed received from Speaker of the Lagos State House of Assembly, Rt. Hon. Mudashiru Ajayi Obasa.
The “Palm Tree” Argument
During the first anniversary of Saheed’s tenure, Speaker Obasa reportedly urged political stakeholders in Kosofe to support the lawmaker’s return to the Assembly after he completed the unexpired tenure of the late Hon. Tunde Braimoh.
Using what became known as his “palm tree analogy,” Obasa argued that retaining experienced lawmakers could provide greater long-term benefits to the constituency.
Saheed subsequently secured the mandate and continued his legislative tenure.
His attempt to secure a second full term, however, encountered significant political resistance.
Despite what his supporters describe as a record of legislative interventions, constituency projects and grassroots development—including the Kosofe Mini Stadium, which is expected to be completed before the end of his tenure—Saheed ultimately failed to secure the party ticket.
When High-Level Support Meets Grassroots Reality
The development underscores an important lesson in Nigerian grassroots politics: endorsements from influential political figures do not necessarily translate into control of the structures that determine party primaries.
Saheed reportedly enjoyed the backing of members of the Governor’s Advisory Council (GAC), Hon. Kafilat Ogbara, the member representing Kosofe Federal Constituency in the House of Representatives, and Hon. Yacoob Ekundayo Alebiosu, Lagos State Commissioner for Waterfront Infrastructure Development.
Yet, the outcome suggests that support at the upper levels of the political hierarchy may not have been enough to overcome resistance within the local political structure.
This is where the contrasting experience of Hon. Sanni Okanlawon, representing Kosofe Constituency 1, becomes instructive. Okanlawon successfully secured the APC ticket for a third term, demonstrating the importance of political experience, local alliances and strategic engagement with grassroots actors.
The Grassroots Players
One argument emerging from the development is that Saheed may have underestimated the influence of political actors whose strength is rooted not in government positions but in ward-level mobilisation.
Among those whose influence remains significant are Princess Samiat Bada, Executive Chairman of Ikosi-Isheri LCDA; Mayor Dele Oshinowo, Former Executive Chairman of Agboyi-Ketu LCDA and APC candidate for Kosofe Federal Constituency; and the various ward leaders whose structures play an important role in party mobilisation and primary elections.
The lesson for aspiring politicians is straightforward: political capital at the top does not automatically translate into electoral strength at the bottom.
Politics Is Also About Perception
Beyond structures and endorsements, political fortunes are often shaped by perception.
A politician perceived by constituents and party members as accessible, generous and responsive can build a powerful grassroots narrative. Conversely, negative perceptions—whether justified or not—can become entrenched when they are not effectively addressed.
This makes interpersonal relationships an important part of political survival.
Newly elected politicians also face the challenge of managing relationships with both old allies and new political associates. While new alliances are inevitable, abandoning those who supported a political journey from its formative stages can create resentment and weaken the very network that helped secure the mandate.
The Yoruba saying, “À rí ìyàwó kọ̀ ìyálé”—embracing the new wife while abandoning the senior wife—captures the danger of neglecting foundational relationships in pursuit of new alliances.
What It Means for 2027
The internal APC contest in Kosofe has already generated competing interpretations.
One camp maintains that the party conducted legitimate and transparent primaries that produced its candidates for the 2027 elections. Another argues that the process did not sufficiently reflect genuine democratic competition.
Whatever position one takes, Saheed’s experience raises a broader question about the relationship between performance, political structures and electoral success.
In grassroots politics, good performance may strengthen a politician’s case—but it does not necessarily secure a ticket.
The experience of Kosofe Constituency 2 therefore offers a broader lesson ahead of 2027: political endorsements matter, performance matters, but the grassroots structures that translate political support into votes—and ultimately party tickets—may matter most.