by Lateef Adewole
In the last two weeks, the airwaves has been agog with the “unveiling of the masquerade” (si aso loju eegun), by no less a person than our former president, Chief Mathew Aremu Okikiola Olusegun Obasanjo. In his characteristic manner, he wrote an open letter to Nigerians, especially the young ones, the friends of Nigeria globally and development partners, which he titled: “My appeal to all Nigerians, particularly young Nigerians”. This has been the subject of discuss in the media; television, radio, print and social media. Numerous articles have been written by analysts and public commentators about it, with each taking position either to support or be against it. It has been interesting reading them.
The long and short of that epistle was for Chief Obasanjo to declare his support for his preferred presidential candidate who happens to be of the Labour Party, Mr. Peter Obi. But before doing do so, he highlighted many challenges facing the country, which he blamed on the current administration. He also had to present the factors which determined his choice among the leading candidates, who he explicitly said are his “mentees”, and have visited him one after another to intimate him about their ambition and seek his blessing.
Whether anyone likes him or not, Chief Obasanjo is an enigma. In today’s Nigeria, he is one person from Nigeria and Africa with huge global recognition and influence. He attained this by his status as former head of state and a two-term civilian president of Nigeria. These were opportunities bestowed on him by providence. Neither of them did he work hard to get, whether in 1976 when he had to be “dragged” out to become the head of the then military junta, following the assassination of his boss, General Ramat Muritala Muhammed, in a failed coup attempt.
Or in 1999, when “he came back from the dead”, where he was brought out of the prison where the late General Sani Abacha slammed him, to come and become the first civilian president at the return of democracy in the fourth republic. At the two instances, he could have died. General Shehu Musa Yar’adua, his close friend, with whom Abacha accused of treason and sentenced to life imprisonment, did not make it out alive. He died in the prison before Abacha himself “died on the throne”. So, in a way, Obasanjo is what Yorubas called “Akanda eda”.
Writing open letters to almost every head of government, either military or civilian, has been his style since leaving office. He wrote to Babangida, Abacha, Jonathan and Buhari. Now, he just wrote against Buhari and some other leading presidential candidates but directed it to Nigerians. All these letters were about how their administrations were not doing well. How Nigeria is going down under their watch. How elections might not be free and fair. And so on. This often rile some Nigerians who see him as being sanctimonious.
About the latest one which was made public on Sunday, 1st of January, 2023, I decided not to talk about it. I was just enjoying the drama it triggered. Unfortunately, as a cross that a public commentator like me has to bear, I was not allowed to enjoy it in peace. Many people kept asking what I think about the letter, for which I refused to make any categorical statement. I saw it as Chief Obasanjo exercising his fundamental right of freedom of expression as a Nigerian.
However, this intervention became imperative after overwhelming demand on me to talk about it. If it was something of so much personal interest to me, it would have come last Saturday. So, I am going to express my position on it here.
Like I wrote earlier, Obasanjo is an enigma. He has always wielded so much influence, especially since the return of democracy, given his position as the first president in 1999 and with his political party, PDP, being in power for the following 16 years from then. He became “baba”, an informal title bestowed on him by the people in reverence to his personality. As the president for 8 years, he “ruled” the country, short of being a military head of state. But, since Nigeria was coming from a very long years of military rule since 1966, with a few interregnum of civilian administrations for few years, our psyche had been militarised.
So, all he was doing was not too “abnormal or strange”; like muscling other arms of government to have his ways, highjacking political party structures, lording it over all and sundry, hounding any dissenting voice using the instrumentality of government, and so on. He was “all-in-all” in Nigeria’s politics, determining who got what in most of elected and appointed positions within his party by dictating the outcomes of party primaries, allegedly influencing the outcomes of general elections by controlling the electoral umpire. These were reflected in the kind of sham elections conducted in 2003 and 2007 under his watch.
He was accused of wanting to remain in power after his constitutional two terms of eight years by “manipulating” the national assembly to amend the constitution to accommodate extention of his tenure in what became popular as “third term agenda”. It failed because of many well-meaning Nigerians at the legislative arm, civil society and even executive arm, through his vice, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, who rose to the occasion to squash it. Many of them became his unforgivable eternal enemies. Atiku is suffering the consequences till date.
With this brief background, Chief Obasanjo became a “go-to” elder statesman whenever anyone wanted to attain any political office in Nigeria. Even after leaving office in 2007, his position and influence were still virile that towards 2015 general elections, the leaders of the main opposition party, newly formed APC, had to reach out to him to seek his support and blessing, in their plan to upstage a sitting president, another of his “mentee”, under PDP, which happened to be his party at the time, but who has fallen out with. That was how important Chief Obasanjo was then. He gave his support to Buhari and APC, publicly tore his PDP card and campaigned vigorously against Jonathan. Buhari won eventually in 2015. It was unprecedented.
Personally, just as I treat any issue in similar situation, I try to separate a message from the messenger, and then treat them independently on their own merit. This affords me the liberty to critically analyse the content of such document as objectively as personally, humanly possible without prejudice, which can result if the personality of the messenger is made to bear on my opinion about the message. Like in this case, some times, Chief Obasanjo does not have the moral right on the content of his letters. However, that does not invalidate many of his claims.
Let me now dissect his latest letter. The letter has received praises and criticisms based on which side one belongs. The supporters of Peter Obi, “the Obidients”, have been in cloud nine since this endorsement. They have gone to town to celebrate it. Now, to them, Obasanjo is the best thing to happen to Nigeria after slice bread. He is the true leader who wants progress for the country. He is a courageous leader who should be listened to and followed.
However, majority of these Obidients were previously in PDP. They were supporters of Jonathan who Obasanjo hounded in 2015. The condemned him for his 18-page “bombshell” letter in 2014 that “finished” Jonathan and his administration. That letter became a potent tool in the hands of the opposition party APC. That was the beginning of the end for that government. Many other Obidients were previous supporters of Alhaji Atiku, called “Atikulates”, who saw Obasanjo as an enemy of their principal then, with his public opprobrium of his person by Obasanjo and his antagonism to Atiku becoming the president of Nigeria.
That has remained, even till date, with a brief respite in 2019, when he supported Atiku for the presidency against Buhari, who was considered a “bigger enemy” then, after much persuasion. It was a case of “the enemy of my enemy is my friend”. How come these same people who called for Obasanjo’s head at those times, suddenly see “Moses” in him and believe his guidance is all Nigerians need to make the “best” choice of who to vote for in this year’s presidential election? What changed? Hypocrisy.
While the Obidients are celebrating the endorsement, the ruling party, APC and the main opposition party, PDP are reeling in pains. In “severe pains” (apology to Oshokomole). They have been upset and there was nothing they have not called him or said to him. From the PDP, there has been no love lost between the party and Obasanjo since he tore their card publicly. Unfortunately, no one in the party could take on him, except former governor Ayodele Fayose, who has been like a “recalcitrant” protégé. Obasanjo made him and broke him.
Fayose has confronted and attacked him both privately and publicly. Most of the people in PDP are his political surrogates of many years. They lack the gut to take on him. Although, the party has released feeble statements to criticise his decision by calling it “his personal opinion”. And that “he is suggesting a candidate that has not had any national experience in governance at the national level”. This was in the press statement released by Kola Ologbodiyan, one of Atiku-Okowa Presidential Campaign Council spokespersons.
His biggest attacks and condemnations came from the presidency, the ruling party APC, and the supporters of their presidential candidate, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu. Vitriolic statements have been issued against him. They are too numerous to highlight here. They said the endorsement is “worthless”. If Obasanjo’s endorsement is that inconsequential, why lose sleep over it? It only means one thing, it is actually important, and an addition to any candidate who gets it. Whether it will now translate to electoral value or not, is another thing.
If Obasanjo is not that important or his words and endorsement amount to nothing, why did the APC candidate, Tinubu, seek him out last year? It was funfair when he visited Obasanjo in his Abeokuta Presidential Library. They even had closed-door meeting. Coming out, his supporters went to town with news of his endorsement by Obasanjo. It was widely reported. Even, the Speaker of the House of Representatives boasted about it. The media aide to Chief Obasanjo had to issue a press release to counter that claim. Same people now feel Obasanjo’s endorsement is “worthless”, now that it is Obi who gets it. Laughable.
This was the same way he was celebrated in the run up to 2015 general elections when he released similar letter that criticised Jonathan. APC, their leaders and supporters celebrated him. While seeking his support, he was eulogised to high heaven. Even Tinubu, who was previously seen as his arch-enemy, put aside their differences, visited him with Buhari, their presidential candidate then and many party leaders, to persuade him.
In 2015, Tinubu was quoted as saying: “You have come out of tribulation and held the highest position in this country. We are here because of your courage and salient points. Nobody can say he has information more than you. You have surmounted a number of crises. Nigeria is divided more than before. To realise a stable Nigeria, we want to encourage you to continue to speak the truth. We have resolved and determined to rescue Nigeria. We want you to be our navigator”.
Same way Buhari praised him for endorsing him. He said: “It will certainly bring more supporters to us and more confidence to those who were sitting on the fence because general Obasanjo is highly respected. And as far as the Nigerian nation is concerned, there is no serious issue that can be discussed without people seeking his opinion and listening to it”.
Chief Bisi Akande, the Interim Chairman of APC also said: “We have come to introduce our party to you; we are in the support of the 18-page letter written to Jonathan, you are capable”.
If same people who said all of these, and many more positive things about him then because he endorsed Buhari, now turn around to criticise him for exercising similar right by endorsing Obi this time around, what has changed? What do we call that if not hypocrisy.
I cannot but agree with most of the things, if not all, that he said about the present administration under the leadership of President Buhari, like where Nigeria is today in terms of “insecurity, poverty, insurgency, banditry, unemployment, hunger, debt, division and disunity”, we have never had it this bad. He further highlighted the challenges of rudderless leadership, mismanagement of diversity, pervasive corruption, galloping inflation, bad economic policies. Only insincere person will deny all of these. The only defence the government has always had was their building infrastructures. I agree that this government has done reasonably well in this regard. But, at what cost? Unfortunately, these are burdens Tinubu has to bear as the APC presidential candidate.
In zeroing down to his choice of a candidate and his vigorous appeal to the youths to rise up to the occasion, he listed few factors he considered as Character, Attributes and Attitude. He further broke it down to what he called “TVCA: Track record, Vision, Character, and Physical and mental capacity”. It is on this basis that he believes Peter Obi, his mentee, is the best among the leading candidates. He took a swipe on the “emilokan” mentality of Tinubu and “I have paid my dues” of Atiku. These are his opinions, to which he is entitled. How much his opinion can sway support to the endorsee remained to be seen. February 25 is around the corner.
Looking at it, devoid of sentiment, how much has Obasanjo’s endorsement amounted to in the past? While in PDP, my opinion is that he wielded such influence, not out of love or respect for him, but out of fear from his political beneficiaries who were obliged to do his bidding. They were muscled, in addition to the political brigandage of his era as president. We did not have serious elections then but “selections”. Those could not be considered as “democratic influence”.
In 2015, Buhari’s ship was already cruising to possible victory from his cult-followership in the north, combined with the political machinery of Tinubu political dynasty, and the combination of forces from other political bigwigs from the opposition parties that merged to form APC. I considered seeking his blessing then, more as being done out of courtesy, and to cover all the basis by political strategists of APC. They did not want to leave anything to chance. Buhari won, but not simply because Obasanjo endorsed him but more because of political dexterity of the actors around Buhari who understand politics. It was a phenomenal project.
His true influence has been subsequent tested after that. Without diminishing his status as former president, since after 2015, who has Obasanjo endorsed, either locally at his local and state government levels, regionally in his Southwest, or nationally, and the person won any election? He eventually endorsed and supported Alhaji Atiku Abubakar in 2019 presidential election, who Peter Obi happened to be vice presidential candidate to. What happened to them? “Won lule” (they lost!). Nobody has won any election since 2015 to date, banking on his endorsement. I will like to know, in case I am wrong.
We are now in 2023. The presidential election is in 42 days. Chief Olusegun Obasanjo has endorsed Mr. Peter Obi. What will such endorsement translate to? We shall find out in few weeks.
Another point I will like to accentuate is the place of youths and young ones in determining the likely winner in the coming elections. It is not by accident that Obasanjo targeted that demography in his letter, it was strategic. According to INEC data, we now have about 93,469,008 registered voters. The youths age 18-34 alone has 37,060,399 (39.6%). Young people age 35-49 are 33,413,591(35.7%). These two groups amount to 70,473,990 (75.4%). Any candidate who can get this demography to his side and they vote for him, is already the president of Nigeria. But, will they come out to vote on election days? Won’t they be playing football on the streets or watching African Magic, Telemundo or Zee World on television or laying about? These are questions to them.
Again, how informed are many of these youths? I have interacted with many of them and was very disappointed. Many’s choices are based on herd mentality, not what they think or know is the right and best choice. Many cannot defend their choices. They need proper education and enlightenment. Endorsement or not, we can only pray that the best person wins, while each of us do our own part. So help us God!
May God continue to protect us and guide us aright.
God Bless Nigeria.
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January 14, 2023.