The Insight by Lateef Adewole
In the last fourteen months, since flurry of declarations for political offices towards 2023 general elections started, with thousands of aspirants indicating their political ambitions publicly, I have had course to write some articles about some of them, their aspirations and their chances. This was applicable to the top office in particular, the presidency. So, when Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, now President-elect, declared on the 10th of January, 2022, on Saturday of that week, I wrote an article titled: “Tinubu And 2023: When A Kingmaker Wants To Be King”.
I received a lot of knocks from Tinubu’s traditional supporters then. This was because of the points I raised as my concerns about his chances and the likely obstacles he would face. Die-hard loyalists often throw reasons and logic away whenever they defend their principal. They don’t like to hear any divergent view that might seem to be against the ones they hold. This often is the problem that leaders faced with sycophantic followers. They won’t tell them the truth. However, true to my words, the obstacles were precisely what he faced in his journey to Aso Rock. Actually, he faced more and worse, as I never even envisaged many of the political existential battles he had to fight, not only against opponents from outside, but from enemies within.
As time went on, I wrote a few others as he became the flag bearer, and as the war against his ambition unravelled. In the history of Nigeria, both the one I have witnessed and the one I read, I have never seen or read of any presidential candidate of the ruling party at the centre, who had to face all the troubles he faced. I do not think such will happen again as it is most illogical thing to happen and against the norm. Where does one start from? But, in Nigeria, everything is possible.
But today, we have had the presidential election, a keenly contested one at that, a winner has emerged and Tinubu is that winner, against all odds. This is why many believed he should be a subject of academic study by political science and history students. His last 30 years of political journey should be subjected to critical analysis by students of power politics. I congratulate him once again for a battle well-fought and a victory well-deserved.
In Nigeria, hardly had any loser in an election accepted their loss graciously and moved on. They often resort to discrediting the polls and challenging the outcomes in court, when they acted in civilised way. There have been instances of crudity and barbarity of inciting supporters to violence. It is no exception this time around too as the losers have approached the courts, though, with some crude behaviours by the side. However, warts and all, with the kind of results from that polls from different states and regions which cummulated to Tinubu having the highest number general votes, it is hard to comprehend how it can still be alleged that he won based on rigging. It is ludicrous. The results were “abnormal” in the sense that, they did not follow the traditional pattern of votes that often brought presidents to power.
That is why many, including me, believed it is only the will of Almighty God that made him to win. As the candidate of the ruling party with 21 states under their control, majority in both chambers of the National Assembly, one would have thought it would be an easy ride for him, but no. Not even with the internal battle he had to fight. And the worst and most dangerous enemies are enemies within, who also camouflage as friends. These were no ordinary people but persons with power and influence. That was the kind of situation that faced him in the last one year since he declared his intention to run for that office. The difficulties became more gigantic as we moved closer to the election itself.
Apart from having to bear the brunt of negative energy of Nigerians who were displeased with the management of the country by the Buhari administration in the last eight years, despite that he held no government position or had any official role, his antagonists made it a duty to heap all the blames for Buhari’s government on him. Yet, the same administration decided to build road blocks on his path by creating situations that hurt the citizens badly; the fuel scarcity and the thoughtless CBN cash confiscation policy. These pains and anguish created additional resentment for the ruling party, the flag of which he carried. He suffer for what he was not responsible for.
With all the forces against him from his own party and government, no one could accuse him of having the advantage of federal might. No one could use vote buying as the means with which he won. No one could say he used the police, military or any other security agents to muscle his way to power. This could be the reason why those who lost had to invent some other excuses for their failures, because the usual rhetorics were not tenable. In fact, the opposition candidates and their parties suddenly became fans and supporters of Buhari and his policy that hurt the people, with the hope that they will turn the tide in their favour. It was not funny at all seeing them defend the Federal government’s actions.
At the last count, Tinubu scored 8,794,726 (37%) to win the polls and had 25% in 30 states, to satisfy the constitutional requirement. A critical look at the spread would show a “miraculous” win. Out of the 21 states with APC governors, he only won in 9 of them. He lost in 12. And where the losses took place were most incredible. To start with, Lagos, the stronghold of the candidate himself, whose parties have been in charge for the past 24 years, who was a governor there for 8 years and has been instrumental to his past 3 successors from the same party, APC lost there. I don’t want to go into all kinds of electoral malfeasance that people later dicovered and still discovering, that took place in many areas during the elections. Within the South West region where he came from, he also lost Osun state.
Then, the leader of the party and the president of the country, President Buhari, also lost his home state, Katsina. This followed the trend of his companions in the bloc vote region called “KKK” (Kaduna, Kano, Katsina). Historically, for a president to win, he has to do well in these states where huge votes usually come from. In my pre-election projections too, I gave Tinubu two of the three, in the least. Shockingly, he lost in the 3 of them. This was despite the massive efforts of the very loyal governors of APC on ground in the states.
On regional basis, he won in 3 regions; South West, North West and North Central, and came 2nd in the other 3; North East, South South and South East. This was what gave him the edge over his competitors, who either won in one region, their base only, or didn’t win in any. They also came 3rd in regions where they lost, outside their strongholds. This is a very peculiar outcome.
Again, among all the candidates, only Tinubu won, not based on tribalism or religion, despite the religious war that some political christian leaders waged against him and his ambition. They did everything humanly possible within their powers to make sure he never won but men’s way is not God’s way. I have many personal friends who are Christians and pastors, who did not buy into the religious divisiveness of these so-called men of God turned politicians. This is why he had the better spread. He won in many christian-dominated states outside his region like Rivers and Benue.
He had very good votes in many muslim-dominated states and won some others, despite competing with two other strong muslims from the North, who shared the muslim votes with him. He won in Jigawa, Borno, Niger, Kogi and Kwara. He did well in others, despite losing them. In summary, he won 12 states; 5 in south, 7 in north. That is 4 in SW, 1 in SS, 4 in NC, 2 in NW and 1 in NE. This is the best spread among the contestants that indicates widespread acceptability. This is not one based on his tribesmen’s or his religious people’s votes alone or majorly. That was the undoing of other candidates who banked on these two factors to win. No one person or group can lay claim to his victory. It belongs to Nigerians across the country.
As he is now waiting to take office on May 29th, 2023, we believe he is doing his preparatory homework. This is what we know him for; a man of vision, with mission, who gets things accomplished. For someone whose life ambition was to become the president of Nigeria, now that he has it, we expect that he is prepared and ready to hit the ground running. No excuse will be entertained by Nigerians. He is a man with wealth of experience in leadership and governance as seen in Lagos, the envy of all states, where he governed and has overseen its continous developmental trajectory in over two decades. These experiences should bear on his leadership of the country.
I have repeatedly stated that if Nigeria, as a whole, can make as much as 50% of the kind of growth that Lagos has experienced in the last 24 years under his watch, directly or indirectly, Nigeria will be among the top countries globally. He is a man who knows what he wants and how to go about getting it. One thing that endeared a person like me to him is his style of leadership as exhibited while he was the governor of Lagos State. He assembled a formidable team of brilliant, energetic and dedicated subordinates. All of them have grown to be giants on their own now, both personally and or politically.
Effectively now, from his school of politics, he has produced local government chairmen, state lawmakers, commissioners, governors, house of Representatives members, senators, ministers, across the country, then vice president and he has now crowned it with the presidency. Doesn’t such a person deserve a dedicated study?
It is such team that we are all looking forward to when he takes office in May 29.
As Nigerians, who stand to benefit from whatever good that will come out of his administration, we can only continue to pray for his success. We pray that God gives him long life and good health. May he be blessed with knowledge, wisdom and understanding that he will require to manage the country effectively for the progress of her citizens and all.
As we look forward to electing our state governors and members of the state houses of assemblies in various states, we should all go out enmass to vote for candidates of our choice, peacefully. We should eschew violence. The next elections scheduled for next Saturday are even more crucial to us as a people. These are political office holders closest to us. Their actions and inactions have more direct impact on us. So, we should be more concerned and focused on who occupy these positions. May the best candidates win.
May God continue to protect us and guide us aright.
God Bless Nigeria.
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March 11, 2023