The Insight by Lateef Adewole
In the next 16 days, a new administration of Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu will be ushered in and take off. This is a day that Nigerians and people around the world are anxiously waiting for. Such excitement is propelled by the high expectations from the “Renewed Hope” mandate given to him in the most competitive national election in Nigeria since its existence. The closest to it was the 1983 presidential election.
Concurrently, on the same day as the presidential election, the lawmakers to represent us at the national assembly were elected as well. With 109 senators and 360 members of the House of Representatives (HOR), the legislative arm is also set to take off immediately after. This will be the 10th assembly since independence. The competitiveness of this year’s elections also reflects in the plurality of the newly-elected senators and the honourable members, with as many as ten political parties having at least a lawmaker.
Although, the ruling party APC has more members in the senate and House of Representatives than other opposition parties, their number is marginal and the usual overwhelming majority. It cannot simply dominates, dictates and controls what happens at the hallow chambers, especially where there is any division in their ranks, while opposition parties are united. As at the last count, the parties have the following in the two chambers: senate; APC 59, PDP 36, LP 8, NNPP 2, SDP 2, YPP 1, APGA 1. House of Representatives; APC 162, PDP 102, LP 34, NNPP 18, YPP 1, APGA 4, SDP 2, ADC 2.
With the above breakdown, one could see the fierceness and firecracking that should be expected when they are inaugurated and as the government runs in the next four years. The sign of this is already showing in the build up to that day, with regards to choosing their leaders. With many lawmakers jostling for various principal offices of the National Assembly, and attempts at managing it by the ruling party APC, through zoning of these offices, which has not gone down well with many who felt cheated, and their rejection of it, the “war” is already brewing.
President Tinubu will be inuagurated on May 29, 2023, by the grace of God. One immediate assignment he has is inuaguration of the 10th assembly. The life of the current 9th assembly will end on 10th of June, 2023, twelve days after Tinubu takes over. The 10th assembly is expected to come on board soon after. Once the president has done that, the immediate task before the lawmakers is the election of their principal officers. First at the senate, followed by the house.
These principal offices are: senate president, deputy senate president, Speaker and Deputy Speaker. These four complete the top six elected positions in the country with the president and vice president of Nigeria. Other principal offices for each of the two chambers include the majority leader and deputy, majority whip and deputy, minority leader and deputy, minority whip and deputy.
So, as an independent arm of government, the lawmakers are expected to elect these officers among themselves without external interference, however, that is never to be. In reality, given that each elected person is sponsored by their party, it is expected that the interest of their party is critical in these choices. So, most often, parties try to influence who should occupy these seats. The argument is that, as individuals and as one arm of government among three, the aspirants might not considered the overall interest of the country and the party in their choices as they might not have the helicopter view which the party, as a national body, has.
The party usually considers many factors in making these choices, which they communicate to the lawmakers as zoning arrangements. They consider religious balancing of leadership among these top six offices, as well as regional inclusiveness, barring unforeseeable circumstance or other unavoidable constraints. More often than not, some lawmakers disagree with such arrangements once it did not favour them or their zone. This is natural, given that politics is about interests, whether personal or of group. This scenerio is already playing out as we inch closer to the D-day.
Few days ago, after a long period of speculations the ruling party APC, officially released their zoning arrangements for the leadership of the 10th assembly. They went further to name preferred aspirants from each of these zones. This has not gone down well with some of their colleagues with similar aspirations. They took their protest to the party Headquarters in Abuja on Thursday.
As I write, the APC zoning arrangement is: Senator Godswill Akpabio is preferred as the senate president (Akwa Ibom state, in South South). His deputy is Senator Barau Jubril (Kano state, North West). The preferred aspirant for the speakership of the House of Representatives is Hon. Tajudeen Abass (Kaduna state, North West) and his deputy, Hon. Kalu Uche (Abia state, South East).
This has angered many other aspirants, either from the same zone as them or other zones. The most pronounced and valid agitation comes from the lawmakers from the North Central which is completely left out. This has generated a lot of protests against the zoning, especially from the house. As usual, the lower chamber has always been more volatile and restless. This can be explained by the lower average age of members of that chamber which has more younger people, unlike the senate, which is more “mature” with more senior citizens as members.
Also, there are so many aspirants wanting to lead the house. APC alone has more than six. After anointing one and another stepped down to accept the deputy speakership position, there are still over four vibrant aspirants, threatening fire and brimstones. They include; Hon. Idris Wase and Yusuf Gbagdi (Plateau, NC), Aliyu Betara (Borno, NE), Miriam Onuoha (Imo, SE) and so on. All of them claiming to be more popular and best fit for the position.
At the senate, Senator Godswill Akpabio seems to have lesser hurdle. Although, about three other aspirants are also challenging his choice. They are Senator Orji Uzor Kalu (Abia, SE), Abdul’aziz Yari (Zamfara, NW) and Sani Musa (Niger, NC). However, if the trend that we have observed since Akpabio declared was anything to go by, he might be enjoying more support from majority of his colleagues. Many of them, who formerly were aspirants themselves, have stepped down for him. Senator Ali Ndume, a ranking and well qualified aspirant stepped down for him and he is now Akpabio’s Campaign DG. A first-time Senator Umahi also stepped down.
Same as few others who must have been persuaded by both the candidate and the party leadership. This has made the journey smoother for Akpabio and Barau, who also stepped down to accept the deputy senate president position. But, those who disagreed with their choices are still pressing on. They presented their protest letter to the National Chairman of the party on Thursday. They threatened that the leadership should revisit the zoning if they do not want them to upset the apple cart. This sounds familiar. There is a feeling of “déjà vu”. We have been here before.
What has been giving them confidence must be the push from their colleagues in the opposition parties. Given the bad blood still existing between the ruling party and the main opposition parties who lost the presidential election, they will like to take their pound of flesh by countering the preferred choices of APC. The PDP and Labour Party in particular, will likely target aggrieved aspirants from APC, garner support for them and field them to contest against the choices of the APC, with extraction of beneficial commitments from them, ofcourse. This was exactly what happened in 2015.
While the current leadership of the 9th assembly were the preferences of the APC in 2015, for the 8th assembly, there were those who were opposed to their choices. They then teamed up with the main opposition party PDP, in a gestapo-like manner, “treacherously” snatched the principal offices from their party. This was not without a major blight that saw an opposition lawmaker, Senator Ike Ekweremadu, emerged as the deputy senate president. That was like an “aberration”.
Senator Bukola Saraki was the arrowhead and top beneficiary, as he became the senate president, against Senator Ahmed Lawan, who was the party’s choice. The speakership also went to Hon. Yakubu Dogara against Femi Gbajabiamila. Despite all efforts by the party and that administration to remedy the upset, peacefully or forcefully, they all failed. They led the chambers for four years. But, was that the best we could get?
Once bitten twice shy. That incident must have taught the ruling party a bitter lesson as they never allowed same to repeat itself. By 2019, everyone was on guard. They did not allow themselves to be “Sarakilised” once again. Although, there were serious efforts on the parts of the then APC candidates who vigorously campaigned among their colleagues, many negotiations, compromises were reached. It was not simply by any directive or imposition. They worked very hard to win the seats. APC and the current preferred candidates should have learnt from that. They cannot and should not just believe that others from their party will support them just because the party leadership said so. It does not work like that.
Such expected serious campaign effort is seen on the part of Akpabio, which must have helped him a lot. Moreso, he was part of the 2015 anti-APC forces then, while still in PDP. As part of the largesse of the anomalies that happened then, he was able to clinch the senate minority leader position, against the tradition of the senate, being a first-time senator. These were prices Saraki had to pay to win and retain his seat for the four rancorous years he led the 8th assembly. But as for the Hon. Tajudeen Abass, many believe he is unpopular in the house, but he is effective and a performer. They accused the incumbent speaker of acting a script as they see Abass as his preferred candidate, who he was accused of deceiving the party leadership to endorse, telling them he is popular.
But, what would we prefer now, Saraki or Lawan leadership style? What are critical considerations in choosing who should lead and who or what zone deserves what? What should the candidates and party do? These, and some more, are questions that agitate the minds of many Nigerians, particularly the politicians and political leadership of the various parties.
Without mincing words, some opposition parties will like to go for broke. Opposition PDP was so influential in 8th senate that one sometimes forgot that Saraki and his loyalists were APC members. So, any opposition will work for such an opportunity whenever it presents itself again. And we seem to
be driving in that direction now, but time will tell. Twenty four hours is a long time in politics, not to talk of over twenty six days before the national assembly will be inuagurated.
The factors in 2015 were not be exactly the same as now. So, it is not a given that any candidate who the opposition members give their support can cruise to victory against ruling party’s preferred candidates. The actors are not the same; candidates, party leadership and national leadership. Also, there is the benefit of hindsight and past experiences. Then, President Buhari was largely responsible for what happened because of his indecision and aloofness at critical time. He did not show the party the required leadership at the time. This is something we have come to know as his character. A big flaw, if I may say.
As someone overratedly revered at the time, majority of lawmakers were looking up to him to give direction as to what his preferences were. He kept saying he had no preferred candidates and was ready to work with whoever emerged as the leaders, while in actual sense, he might have had some he preferred. I can also say he was inexperience in democratic practices. That was a minus too. A man who was used to giving orders that must be obeyed, voluntarily or otherwise, as a military man and head of state, might have considered it beneath him to be negotiating with “bloody civilians”, persuading or even begging them, to get what he wanted. This is another minus to him.
It was on that lackadaisical attitude that Saraki and others capitalised and played a fast one on the party. But now, it is not the same. Tinubu is the grandmaster of Nigerian politics today, whether anyone likes him or not. He is a seasoned democrat, with huge experience. He has mastered the art of negotiation, persuasion, and reaching compromises, in order to arrive at a middle ground and or outrightly get what he wants. His interest and involvement in the discussion about the leadership of the 10th assembly will make a lot of difference.
I am an advocate of an assertive independent legislative arm. This is because, the Nigerian constitution, with its inherent flaws, has excessively empowered whoever is the Nigerian president. As the saying goes, “power corrupts, absolute power corrupts absolutely”. So, there is a need for an independent-minded national assembly to checkmate the excesses and possible overbearing nature of any president. This, Saraki’s leadership did very well. Had we not had such assembly during the first tenure of Buhari with a military mindset, may be by now, our democracy would have been completely ruined. Autocracy would have become full-fledged.
I applauded many events where those checks on Buhari’s actions safeguarded our democracy and country. However, their were downsides to such rancorous relationship between the two arms. There were hinderances to progress of the country many times. As Buhari’s administration, through his proxies, turned the issue to a “war” with Saraki and his NASS leadership, there were constant cat and mouse fights between the two arms. Mutual suspicions rented the atmosphere. Numerous delays in approvals of requests from executive at the senate.
Non-confirmation of some nominees of the president by the senate. Mr. Magu of the EFCC was never confirmed as substantive chairman of the commission all through his tenure, despite being presented multiple times. Same as few others. Annual budgets were excessively delayed, sometimes, needlessly. This had negative implications on the country as a whole. The executive hounded Saraki till his last days too, humiliated him and did everything to frustrate him. I wrote about all of these at the time.
In spite of my stand on the independence of the National Assembly, I believe their should be mutual cooperation for larger interest of the country. But Lawan’s leadership took such cooperation too far that people labelled the 9th assembly as “rubberstamp”, an extension of the Buhari’s executive arm. This was because of his utterances and actions. Imagine him saying that whatever Buhari brought to them, they will approve it always with alacrity. And that has been exactly what he has done in the last four years.
All the borrowing plans that Saraki’s 8th assembly blocked or stepped down were speedily approved by Lawan’s 9th senate. All appointees that Buhari presented to them were always speedily confirmed, even where there were uproar against such persons. Only a few times did he budge under public pressure, in the case of Mrs. Lauretta Onochie’s nomination as INEC Commissioner. He was hell-bent on making it sail through at initial stage.
We are all witnesses to the disastrous pit that the unchecked borrowings by Buhari’s government have put us today. We now have a national debt burden of about N46 trillion Naira as at today, from N12 trillion naira in 2015. That is 375% increase, with attendant humongous debt servicing of about N6.3 trillion in 2023 budget. That is 28.9% of our annual budget, more than 60% our projected revenues. So, such unbriddled support for the executive recklessness in the name of cooperation is not what Nigeria wants and deserves.
The upside of it is that things get done faster. Budget cycle has been restored to January to December by making sure budgets were passed quickly without unnecessary delays. Boards of government establishments were functional as nominees to the senate were treated with dispatch. Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) was eventually passed and signed by the president. Same as Electoral Acts amendments, many other laudable bills, and other interdependent responsibilities that were needed to make government function, and deliver the dividends of democracy to the people. There was also peace, which enhanced harmonious working relationship between the two arms.
When both are compared, neither can be completely condemned. So, the goods from both sides should be harnessed for the good governance of the country. Therefore, the current APC leadership and the president-elect should listen to the complaints of other aspirants, discuss and negotiate with them, and find ways to assuage their worries. These I know, Tinubu is deft at doing.
As we move to a new administration in the next 16 days, I wouldn’t want anything to be an excuse for the incoming president and his government, as such will be unacceptable. I always disagreed with those who made excuses for Buhari that he had problem with the national assembly and that he was sabotaged, reason for many abysmal performances we saw in the last 8 years. That’s balderdash. Tinubu should not fall into similar trap.
Nigerians believe in him, his vision, his capacity to turn things around so that Nigeria can stop going deeper into the hole and begin to come out of it. He is condemned to perform and deliver! Nothing less will be acceptable to the people. This national assembly leadership election will be a test of his dexterity. May God help him.
May God continue to protect us and guide us aright.
God Bless Nigeria.
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May 13, 2023.
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