By
Dr. Abdulkareem Onakoya (PhD, FNIMC),
Democracy and self rule are beginning to end in some West African nations with the waves gathering momentum in the series of the military interregna.
Just last week, a neighbouring country, Niger witnessed yet another take over of the ‘Khaki men’ making the counts to five (5) between 2020 and 2023 with Mali taking the lead.
However, the new military rulers in Niger Republic has only tomorrow (Sunday, 6th August, 2023) to either restore the elected President, Mohammed Bazoum to power or face serious measures, including possible invasion.
This ultimatum issued by the ECOWAS would also mean that if the junta led by the former Head of the Presidential Guard, General Abdourahamane Tchiani couldn’t meet up, the body could extend the sanctions to include among others; borders closure, a no-fly zone and freezing of assets etc.
The issues are, however, not as straight forward as we may think. Of course, there are many other complications which may be including several foreign interests.
Looking at it from the level of war, we can only know its beginning, not how it will end. The aftermath of it are in most cases death and destruction. For instance, if the ECOWAS should invade Niger, it could also be faced by the armies of Mali, Guinea, Burkina Faso and Chad.
Also, if our soldiers (Nigerian) are sent to Niger Republic, we could only be extending the continuing France’s ‘unholy wars’ of occupation, domination, exploitation, theft and assassination of non-cooperating leaders in Africa.
The new military boys in Niger have been accusing France of planning to invade the country because they have asked French troops to leave the country. This accusation France has not denied till today but it will be logical for France to want to hold on to Niger after its troops have been kicked out of Mali and Burkina Faso.
Holding on to their strongholds in Niger and Chad would be strategic. In comparison with these, the other French military bases in Africa such as Cote d’Ivoire, Djibouti, Senegal and Gabon, are small, hence the reason to uphold the big bases.
While ECOWAS motives may be pure, its signals can sometimes be confusing. For instance, the envoy it sent to Niger was the Chadian coup plotter, General Mahamat Idriss Deby, from a country which is not even a member of the ECOWAS. Mahamat was only seven (7) when his father, Idris Deby overthrew the Chadian government. In preparing Mahamat to take over the Chadian government, Deby made his son a General at 26 and transitioned into an ‘elected’ president with a constitution.
When he died on April 19, 2021, constitutionally, the Speaker of the National Assembly, Haroun Kabadi was to act as President for 40 days after which fresh elections were to be held. The next day, he (Mahamat) overthrew the government, sacked the executives, dissolved the parliament and suspended the constitution.
The international custodians of democracy generally gave a nod to the coup. France was more direct. Its Foreign Minister, Jean-Yves Le Drian, said the coup was justified on the basis of security, adding that overthrowing democracy in Chad was acceptable because there were “exceptional circumstances.”
Nigeria also supported the Chadian coup. Our former Foreign Minister, Geoffrey Jideofor Onyeama, said Nigeria supported the coup because “it does not want a power vacuum”, Then, the President Muhammadu Buhari followed up by inviting Mahamat to the Aso Rock Presidential Villa, Abuja where the young General in uniform with military boots thudding the floor, was given a red carpet. He (Buhari) assured him: “We will help you in all ways we can.”
So, what is the logic in anti-coup ECOWAS sending a coup plotter to meet a fellow coup plotter in neigbouring Niger? Is it to set a thief to catch a thief or in the hope that General Mahamat would take advantage of esprit-de-corps to persuade the Nigerien military to restore constitutional rule; the very thing he has for two years refused to do in Chad?
The reason the Chadian military would not allow democratic rule could be that it is being controlled by a tiny ethnic group, the Zaghawa or Beri, which is a percent of the population but has been in power for the past 33 years.
While the intentions of the president, Bola Ahmed Tinubu and the ECOWAS might be pure, those of some of the leaders in the region may not be. For instance, President Alassane Dramane Ouattara of Cote d’Ivoire whose dedication to France is not in doubt, is in his third term in office when the country’s constitution provides for a maximum two terms. He lobbied and schemed to elongate his rule.
Another ECOWAS leader is Togolese President Faure Gnassingbe who has been in power for 18 years now. When his father, former Sergeant Gnassingbe Eyadema died on the 5th February, 2005 after 37 years in power, Faure overthrew the elected Togolese government.
He was in power for 20 days before installing a puppet, Bonfoh Abass in office for 68 days, after which he returned to power. Can the son of a coup plotter, and a coup plotter in his own right, really be against coups?
Those who are currently advocating the immediate invasion of the Niger Republic by the ECOWAS may be oblivious of the fact that President Bazoum, his family and some officials of the Niger administration are being held by the coup plotters; or would they be mere collateral damage?
Coming back home, if the invasion sees a green light, Nigeria will play a lead role.
MY WORRIES;
- The Nigerian military is bogged down by the secessionist violence in the South-East, terrorists in the North-East, armed militia storming through the Middle Belt and bandits rampaging throughout the country, especially in Katsina, Sokoto, Zamfara and Niger states.
*What is the basis and or rationale of pulling out the troops from this same military and sending them to Niger with which we share a 1,000-kilometre border? Considering the level of jeopardy we might put our nation and the people into.
- Should a nation heavily indebted with lots of economic commitments and unable to maintain vital subsidies for its populace, spend huge resources sending and maintaining troops in a foreign country? And if the money comes from other countries, at what costs and what guarantees?
- On the other hand, the invasion of Niger can be sourced to Chad, whose French-backed military is essentially mercenary which has fought in countries like Mali and the Central African Republic and can easily source for troops from its Zaghawa kith and kin in Darfur, Sudan.
Let us also bring the cognition to the president that the coups in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger are said to be in response to Islamic jihadist movements. These terrorist movements have their ancestry in the Mujahideen created by the US and its allies in Afghanistan and Pakistan.
Then the West with its Gulf allies created the Islamic State, ISIS, which spilled out of control, spreading terrorism to various countries, including Mali where the Nigeria Boko Haram members were trained, financed and armed.
The West bombed Ghadafi and his government out of existence turning Libya not just into a basket case, but also becoming the source of free arms and itinerant terrorists.
Let’s THINK DEEP !!!
Dr. Abdulkareem Onakoya (PhD, FNIMC),
Department of Political Science,
Lagos State University of Education, Oto-Ijanikin,
(Epe Campus),
Lagos.
Tel:- +2348026621805,
onakoyaa@lasued.edu.ng,
5th August, 2023.