As Nigeria prepares for another national census, I hope those leading the process fully appreciate the weight of what’s at stake. Beyond headcounts, a national census is a powerful instrument for economic planning, social investment, and inclusive governance.
Policymakers rely heavily on accurate population data to make informed decisions about education, healthcare, infrastructure, and targeted interventions. Without reliable numbers, even the most well-intentioned policies will fall flat.
But here’s the real challenge: how can we carry out a credible census amid ongoing security concerns in several parts of the country? The risk to enumerators and the cost of traditional methods beg for a modern solution. This is where a digital-first census approach becomes not just preferable, but necessary.
In history, Nigeria has carried out census exercises around 13 times, both in the pre-independence and post-independence eras. Yet, many of these results were either disputed or outright canceled due to controversies over figure inflation in various regions. The only widely accepted and substantial census we have today dates back to March 2006, when President Olusegun Obasanjo officially announced a population of 140,003,542. Since then, the figure of over 240 million that’s often cited is largely an assumption, not a verified reality.
For someone like me, I believe in anchoring our data-driven decisions on verifiable sources. That’s why I often refer to the number of Nigerians who have enrolled for their National Identification Number (NIN) — 114,575,349 — as a more realistic working population figure. In a country where NIN is essential to access many opportunities, services, and registrations, it offers a more grounded estimate that any serious government would want to work with.
By building on this foundation, we can answer critical questions like:
What is the actual population of a state or local government area?
How many residents live in each ward?
What is the real-time distribution of persons with disabilities (PWDs) across the country?
This level of detail matters. Take, for instance, any planned intervention for people with disabilities across the 36 states and the FCT. The allocation should not be based on general state populations but on the specific data of PWDs in each state. If Lagos has 20 million people but the lowest number of registered PWDs, it should receive the least share of that particular intervention not because it’s less important, but because data must drive equity and efficiency.
This is public money (taxpayer money) and it must be invested wisely, transparently, and with outcomes that reflect real needs.
As we move toward this critical exercise, I hope the government not only prioritizes innovation and digital accuracy but also rolls out a robust public awareness campaign. Citizens must be informed, engaged, and confident in the process. Without their participation, even the best tools will fall short.
The census is not just a headcount; it’s a cornerstone of national development. Let’s do it right.