By Lateef Adewole
Email: lateefadewole23@gmail.com
Whatsapp: +2348179512401
In the last ten days, the world has been dominated with only one news: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine! Why has this been so? Is this the first time a country or group of countries will invade another sovereign nation? Definitely no! It was all because of the divided interests involved. Russia, which is a world power like the United States and others, has flexed his muscles over Ukraine, her neighbour and erstwhile “family member” in the Soviet Union, who enjoys sympathy from the West, many of whom are “perceived enemies” of Russia.
The heightened awareness was due to the tendency of the crisis to lead to another unwanted world war, a third time, if not carefully managed, given the influence of allies on both sides. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), comprising of 30 countries; USA, Canada UK, Germany, France, and some other European and Asian countries, is said to be sympathetic towards Ukraine, while the allies of Russia include China, North Korea, Iran, Pakistan and some others.
To avoid unintended consequences of a breakout of a world war, NATO and world leaders, who are sympathetic to Ukraine have been constrained from direct military intervention as Russia plummeted the country, an expectation that the Ukrainian leaders might have misread before the invasion started. They must have thought, wrongly so, that European countries, and NATO would be there for them, in an event of Russian aggression. The much they could actually do is to impose heavy sactions on Russia from all angles; financial, international trade, diplomatic, sports, entertainment, businesses, including those of prominent individuals from Russia, especially the aristocratic class and monachs.
Truly, those sanctions have been massive with attendant negative consequences on Russia’s standing in global economy. The country is being isolated in all fronts. This has led to the nosedive of their economy. The Russian national currency, Ruble is fast crumbling in value. Interest rates was raised to 20% from previous 9.5%, in an unprecedented move to save country’s economy. Many residents bombarded banks and making massive withdrawals of their savings, a situation that is putting the financial sector of the country at risk. Although, these have not stopped Russia from further aggression, as their forces have been taking over some Ukrainian cities. The largest nuclear plant in Europe, located in Ukraine, was blown up yesterday and now under Russia’s control.
There have been divided opinions about the invasion. This is because, many see the actions of NATO and allied world leaders on the Ukrainian side as hypocritical. Why? In the first place, watching a video where many “whites” were interviewed made many feel disgusted. Comments like: “these are Europeans with blonde hair and blue eyes being bombarded”, “these are white people”, etc, referring to the Ukrainians under attack. Does that mean there are categories of human beings who such bombardments were originally meant for and should not have been Europeans or whites? This is a reflection of thoughts in the West.
Many felt Russia was irked by the romance between Ukraine and NATO, Russia’s arch-enemy. President Vladimir Putin sees it as a threat to him and his country, given the proximity of Ukraine to Russia. Why would he allow his “enemy” to camp at his backyard? This is similar thing that the United States of America prevented in 1962 under President John F. Kennedy, when the defunct USSR wanted to establish military base in Cuba, the next door neighbour of America. This has been sustained ever since.
I saw a picture message on social media few days ago, where world leaders were depicted trying to save a child used to represent Ukraine from drowning in a river, while another child representing Palestine, is seen drowning by their side with no care in the world from the leaders. In the river bed, were dead bodies and carcasses used to depict some other countries like Syria, Iraq, Iran, Libya, Kashmir, Pakistan, Afganistan, and the likes. A picture, they say, is worth more than a thousand words. Despite the general worry and sympathy for Ukraine, a beautiful and blossoming country, that has become attractive to many people around the world, including Africans and Nigerians, for education, many criticised the world leaders for their double standards.
We can also see many France incursions and continous interferences in the West African countries. Their military presence is likened to “invason” of these countries. Moreover, the militancy, insurgency and terrorism which such involvements and presence ought to help crushed or stemmed, are rather worse and continously escalate. Worse still, many of their democratic governments are being overthrown by the military. Of what use is the presence of France in these countries? To exploit the countries’ natural resources in connivance with crooked thieving political leaders in these countries? What moral right does France then have to attack Russia? There are too many shady things going on around that region.
This ongoing war has serious implications for everyone globally. That informed the frequency of the meetings of the United Nations’ ambassadors of member countries. The emergency special session of the 193-member UN General Assembly was called and held on Monday, which addressed the crisis. But at the UN Security Council permanent seat, where is Nigeria? Where is Africa? In all that is going on, where is the African voice? Does anyone even care to listen to or interested in what Africa has to say about this? Do we even have a voice or a say?
I am sure the cacophony of voices from few countries in Africa would simply be dismissed by Putin and not given much significance by NATO too. UN would also not bother asking what we think. Why should they bother? Have we ever grown up and stood on our own, despite the supossed independence we claimed we got from our colonial masters? Are we really independent? Many countries in Africa, with exception of very few, still depend largely on foreign countries in other parts of the world for their survival.
For instance, the war has distrupted the crude oil global economy, resulting in price shock. As I write this, the Brent crude is selling for above 114 dollar per barrel. This should ordinarily be good news to oil producing nations like Nigeria. Many members of OPEC will be making the kill and smiling to the banks. Is that so in Nigeria? I doubt. This is because, as we receive the goodies from one hand, we fleet them aways with the other.
A country that is the number seven in oil production in the world, with over 200 million people, cannot boast of a single functional refinery. There are four refineries which have remained moribund for years, defying all efforts at revival, but remained drain pipes to the avaliable meagre resources. Or, how do we explain that the refineries that did not produce a single litre of fuel year after year, incurred billions of naira in overheads? Hundreds of billions of naira are spent on rehabilitations and Turn-Around-Maintenance (TAM) without results. Are we cursed in Nigeria? Who does that?
With the skyrocketed price of crude, comes the attendant humongous subsidy which is “paid by NNPC to NNPC” (a fi owo Abu se Abu lalejo), many times surreptitiously without appropriations, after the daily fuel consumption figures might have been padded. How could we consume 65 to 75 million litres of petrol per day in Nigeria? Sometimes higher. The total installed capacity of the four refineries put together is 445,000 barrels per day, but zero litre is refined. Rather, the crude is swapped in an exchange arrangement with refiners abroad, who only return only one product; Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), popularly called petrol, back to Nigeria.
Where are the other products obtainable from the crude once refined? For the past two weeks, Nigerians have even been suffering from seriously biting fuel scarcity, with motorists spending hours and days at the filling stations, just to get fuel for their cars. This was occasioned by the bad fuel, about 100 million litres imported into the country, discharged, sold out at the depots and dispensed to final consumers, only for the peoples’ cars to be damaged. The Russian war and crude price soaring, have now compounded our woes, with no end in sight. Black market price for petrol is as high as between 500 to 1000 naira per litre.
While a whole country could not effectively and efficiently run and manage its refineries, a single Nigerian, Alhaji Aliko Dangote, is about starting his 4-in-1 refinery in Lekki Lagos, with capacity to refine 650,000 barrels per day of crude. That industrial complex is the biggest single complex in the world. Owned by a Nigerian. So, what is wrong with us? Same thing apply to gas. Our lack of independent capacity is making us lose out on business opportunities for gas demands caused by the sactions on Russia, which is a major gas supplier to Europe and Asia.
The GMD of the NNPC, Mele Kyari said in a programme this week that Nigeria now has 209.5 trillion cubic feet of proven reserve of gas. Yet, we don’t have gas to cook. It’s at exorbitant rate. Most of our power plants are gas fired, they suffer from lack of gas and consequently, the epileptic power supply we “enjoy” in Nigeria. How does that make sense? Let someone not tell us we are suffering from lack of power, just because of dry season. That’s being clever by half. How about those countries in deserts, without water bodies or rainfalls? Don’t they have power? Saudi Arabia, UAE, Egypt, Morocco, and many others, do not have regular rainfalls. Some for many years. Don’t they have power? How do they do it?
This is how we depend on other countries for imports of most of our consumables and basic needs, despite being the country with the highest concentration of black people on earth, and called the “giant of Africa”. The story is the same across Africa, except a few. Only South Africa tries to play in the big league of nations. Ghana, Côte d’ivoire produce the world’s cocoa needs but import chocolates back. Nigeria has the best cassava but China is about exporting “gaari” to Africa. All our mineral resources are mined by foreigners, exported in raw for peanuts, only for us to import processed goods from such raw materials at exorbitant prices. Cotton to textiles. Woods to furniture. Raw golds to gold jewelleries. And so on.
When the coronavirus pandemic broke, Africa went cap-in-hand begging for almost everything from protective gears and other non-pharmaceutical items, to vaccines. What exactly can we do on our own really? How can we expect to be taken seriously or reckon with in the comity of nations or among continents of the world? When we could not feed ourselves or meet our basic needs, how could we even be talking about military strength and firepower? What gives reckoning to any nation is both economic and military powers. USA, Russia, China, Germany, England, Japan and other world powers are not called so for nothing.
Even a small country like North Korea, under the leadership of Kim Jong-un, has been able to bully its way to reckoning by internal self- developments and advancements, no country treats it like tissue paper any longer, even though, it is an autocratic regime. I think there might be need to re-evaluate the kind of democracy we practise in Africa too. This one that breeds unbridled corruption, inept political leadership, retrogressive tendencies, wastefulness and unwieldy bureaucracy, may need to give way to other alternative that can lead to progress and true emancipation of Africa. Africa is not working as presently constituted.
The humanitarian crisis that is brewing in Ukraine with thousands dead and millions displaced, demands that urgent steps be taken to stem further degeneration of the crisis, especially with the blazing military might that Russia has amassed with a 40 mile (64km) convoy of military equipment stationed outside the Ukrainian capital city of Kyiv, ready to match on the city. Some cities have already fallen, with casualties, particularly the allegations of civilians being affected, including women and children.
Like the UN Secretary General, António Guterres said; “The guns are talking now, but the path of dialogue must always remain open”. It is cheery to hear that the negotiators from both sides are reaching some understanding. It was reported that the two parties have agreed to a ceasefire to enable for civilian evacuation and humanitarian aids get to the victims. People have died on both sides but more on Ukraine.
It’s also a lesson for our leaders, seeing how Ukrainian leaders remained steadfast in standing for their people. Celebrities, actors, business moguls, are part of warriors on Ukraine sides. They did not pack their bags and flee, at the firing of the first shot. Not in Nigeria. Also, to “ignorant” war mongers. I hope they are watching too and realise war is not “pepersouping or isiewuing”. People are killed. Cities destroyed. Peace shattered. Therefore, we must find ways to resolve our problems without going into war. But, let leaders do the right things too to avoid frustrating situations that push citizens to call for war as a last resort!
In all, we hope that all this will come to an end soon. The world is still battling with covid-19 pandemic, which seems to be on recess due to the ongoing war, so, cannot afford another world war.
May God continue to protect us and guide us aright.
God Bless Nigeria.
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