By Lateef Adewole
There is a saying in Yorubaland that; “kaka k’ewe agbon ro, lile lo n le si” (rather than things to get better, they are getting worse). This can be used to describe what is going in the main opposition party PDP, between their presidential flag bearer, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar and a group of five sitting governors of the party, now christened “G5”. These are Governors; Nyesom Wike of Rivers, Okezie Ikpeazu of Abia, Ifeayin Ugwuanyi of Enugu, Seyi Makinde of Oyo and Samuel Ortom of Benue states.
This group has constituted a pain in the ass of the candidate and the party in the last five months. They have openly disagreed with him and the party leadership over some salient issues, one of which has to do with dishonouring some gentleman’s agreement and understanding they all reached last year, with the flag bearer and the leadership of the party. The minimum demand being the resignation of the National Chairman, Dr. Iyorchia Ayu, from his position, to pave way for another person from the south.
What’s the background to this? It is based on the constitution of the PDP, which recognises that the presidency of Nigeria will be rotated between the south and the north. As at today, a northerner, in the person of President Muhammadu Buhari, would have been Nigerian president for eight years, by May 29, 2023. It is believed that the next president should come from the south. However, due to the ambition of Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, who desperately want to become president of Nigeria, the arrangement was thwarted to give room for him.
As at 2021, when the discussion as to where the national chairman of the party should come from, there was consensus that it should be from the north, since a southerner, Prince Uche Secondus, has occupied the position since December 10, 2017. At the contest, no southerner vied for the post. Only northerners, with the belief that the south will produce the presidential candidate. In the process, Dr. Ayu emerged, under controversial circumstances, as some believed he was planted by Atiku, given their close relationship over time.
All was fine until the debate on the presidential candidate came up. Suddenly, some bigwigs in the party from the north started to change the goal post in the middle of the match. Debate ensued as to whether to zone it to the south or throw it open. Despite the resolution of the southern block and their staunch resistance, especially the PDP governors from the south, who are in the majority by the way, the party leadership and those bigwigs from the north, armtwisted them and guided the argument until it was decided it should be thrown open to all aspirants from all over the country. This was to the dissatisfaction of southerners who felt betrayed, but had to accept for the sake of the party.
Then, an understanding was said to have been reached with both Ayu, the national chairman and the northern aspirants. It was allegedly agreed that if a northerner emerged as the flag bearer, Ayu will resign, to pave way for rebalancing of key positions, by bringing a southerner on board as the national chairman of the party. All was fine with that.
However, as the primary came and gone in May 2022, with Alhaji Atiku trouncing all other aspirants to clinch the ticket, to the displeasure of some southerners, especially the first runner up, Governor Wike, who felt the process was rigged against him with the “Tambuwa joker” that was played on him. Atiku won with 371, Wike scored 237 to come second. The third position went to Saraki with 70 votes. And a host of others.
On that faithful day of the PDP presidential primary, Governor Aminu Tambuwa, who was also an aspirant in the contest, after canvassing for votes, suddenly reappeared on the podium and declared that he was stepping down. To the shock of many, he did so for Atiku Abubakar and asked his supporters to vote for Atiku. Wike was dazed. He could not believe what just happened. Same as many other participants, party members and viewers.
This was because, Wike has been a solid ally of Tambuwa. In similar contest in 2018 where Tambuwa was also an aspirant, contesting against Atiku, the major aspirant then and others, Wike immersed himself in Tambuwa presidential project. He fought tooth and nail, body and soul, physically and materially, just so that Tambuwa could get the ticket. He even influenced the venue of the contest to be brought to Port Harcourt, Rivers State, by threatening the party. He has been a major pillar of support on which the party rested, since they lost the 2015 presidential election.
So, naturally, many expected that, in good conscience, if at all Tambuwa wanted to step down, he should have paid Wike back by stepping down for him and supporting him. Rather, he stabbed him in the back. This was not surprising to many keen follower of Tambuwa’s antecedents. Such seemed to be his trait; serial betrayal. The case of his ascendancy to the speakership of the Federal House of Representatives in 2011, with the massive support he got from Southwest caucus of the then ACN, led by Honourable Femi Gbajabiamila, despite being in different parties, is still fresh in our memory.
He won against the PDP annointed candidate, Hon. Mulikah Akande. By 2015, he was already a governor in Sokoto state. Femi Gbajabiamila was the APC candidate for the speakership position of the House of Representatives. What did Tambuwa do? While Femi must have expected that Tambuwa would mobilise the honourable members from his state and those from others, based on his influence as a former speaker, for him, he betrayed Femi. He threw his weight behind Yakubu Dogara, who eventually became the speaker of the House of Representatives from 2015 to 2019, against Femi Gbajabiamila’s interest. This is by the way.
Back to the main issue. After Alhaji Atiku Abubakar got the ticket, other aspirants, including those from the south, had no choice but to accept it in good faith. Subsequently, they called up the gentleman’s agreement they had earlier, about the party’s National Chairmanship position. That was when things began to fall apart, as both the candidate and national chairman, tried to be clever by half. They reneged on their earlier promise. Ever since, things have not been the same again within the party.
Governor Wike has championed this cause of demanding for Ayu’s resignation to pave way for a southerner to replace him. He argued, like others too, that it is inappropriate to have both the two topmost positions within the party, be held by people from the same zone, North, in this case. This is a very valid point. However, Ayu would not have any of that. He insisted he has a four year mandate and will not resign.
Wike is hurting most because, he not only lost the presidential ticket, his chance of becoming the number two citizen was also rejected by the flag bearer, who instead, chose another governor from Wike’s region; South-South, Dr. Ifeanyi Okowa, as his vice presidential candidate. He must have done that with the hope of neutralising Wike’s influence within the region. Did he succeed? Time will tell. The salt to injury was that, Atiku was the one who set up the committee of party leaders to make recommendations to him as who to choose as his running mate. The committee of 17, recommended Wike, ahead of other two; Okowa and Udom. Unfortunately, Atiku rejected him and picked Okowa. That caused the breakdown in their relationship.
Ever since then, Wike has been unappeased. He has been resolute in demanding for Ayu’s resignation as the minimum requirement for reconciliation and for him to be part of the presidential campaigns and support the party’s candidate, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar. All entreaties to him have failed. Luckily for him, he was able to get sympathy of four other of his colleagues, those listed earlier, called G5. They all are demanding for the same of Ayu. They agreed that Wike was treated unfairly.
This has created a sustained rancour within the party. It has divided the party down the line as party leaders, members and supporters have been divided along the two camps; Wike group vs Atiku/Ayu group. Such division has constituted major hindrance to effective mobilisation and campaigns for the presidential election. Although, Atiku said recently that they have moved on from that, but have they really moved on?
Can any party afford to move on, leaving five of his governors from its stronghold behind without devastating consequences? I very much doubt that. Alhaji Atiku and his camp know very well too. This is because, it is similar to what they once championed in the past. This seems to be a replay of 2014, when the then ruling party PDP, was fragmented into two. A faction of the party bigwigs pulled out and formed what was known as “new PDP” (nPDP). It was led by this same Alhaji Atiku Abubakar. What caused that? A perceived injustice against the north and northern presidential aspirants, which Atiku was the most prominent.
Following the unfortunate death of Alhaji Umaru Yar’adua, a northerner who was elected as president of Nigeria after the eight years of President Olusegun Obasanjo, a southerner, another southerner, Dr. Goodluck Jonathan, became president by providence, in 2010. He went ahead to contest for his own term in 2011, against northern interest who felt short-changed by Yar’adua’s death. He won. The north felt cheated. As he was winding down in his first term, he showed interest in contesting for another term. This riled the northerners and even some southerners. Those who had presidential aspiration decided to pull the rug off his feat.
They divided the party into two and eventually decamped to the main opposition party then, APC. Atiku led five governors, NEC members, senators, representatives, party leaders and members away. That was the beginning of the end to the 16 year reign of PDP since 1999. The party lost the presidential election in 2015 and the opposition candidate, General Muhammadu Buhari (Rtd.), won. That was unprecedented in Nigerian history. We were also fortunate that the incumbent President Jonathan was not so power drunk or desperate as to either manipulate the electoral process or tamper with the outcomes to favour him, or reject the result after he lost. That saved our country from unimaginable ruins, given all that preceeded that contest.
The general sentiment against Jonathan, which favoured Buhari then, was that, “north l’okan” (it was the turn of the north). It is similar sentiment that is prevalent now. Until now, it was inconceivable for me that a region in Nigeria will contemplate or attempt to hold on to power for longer than two terms of eight years in a row, under a democratic system, with our ethnic diversity, irrespective of political inclinations.
As far as majority of Nigerians who belong to no party, are concerned, any president from the north has utilised the turn of the north and any one from the south has utilised the turn of the south, irrespective of which party such president comes from. That’s inconsequential. Now that President Buhari will be completing his eight years in 2023, it is expected that the turn of the north has been effectively utilised. It is therefore immoral and against natural justice that they will contemplate retaining power in that region. This is why I have never accepted the candidacy of Alhaji Atiku and Kwakwanso, two eminently qualified people who want to lead Nigeria, or any other northerner who is contesting. Because now, “south l’okan” (it is the turn of the south).
The desperation of Atiku is understandable. This is like his last chance. At 75, it will be shocking to see him try again in 2027, at age 80. That will be ludicrous. Moreover, this might be his lifetime ambition too, given his history as a serial contestant. He has contested for the coveted seat for a record six times; 1993, 2007, 2011, 2015, 2019 and now, 2023. He lost in his previous five attempts either at the primaries or the general elections. So, this time might be his parting shot. But, it should not be a “do or die” affair. Power belongs to God and He gives whoever He pleases.
Sadly, the wind is against his sail this time. If care is not taken, the G5 might become G6 or G7, if all we are hearing are not speedily handled and nip in the bud. The Bauchi state governor, Senator Bala Muhammed, publicly voiced out his displeasure as to how he is being treated by the presidential candidate, despite being the Deputy Coordinator of the Campaign Council in the North East zone.
There was also the rumour that the DG of the Atiku-Okowa Presidential Campaign Council, Governor Emmanuel Udom of Akwa Ibom state, is threatening to resign as he could not work effectively due to funds not being made available. The party has denied these but there is no smoke without fire. By the way, Udom’s appointment was part of the strategic counter measures against Wike’s influence in his region too. How effective? Time will tell.
When I ruminate over these, as a student of history, I could not but asked myself if this is not karma. The natural cause and effect of what you sow, you shall reap. I need not say more. A word is enough for the wise.
In all, as a citizen of Nigeria, I, like many others, only want and pray for the best candidate to win in 2023. Someone who will get us out of the doldrums. Someone who is visionary and has the leadership qualities required to change the course of the country for better. A person with gut, courage, capacity, competence, drive, who understands the political dynamics and can manage it effectively to pull back the country from the precipice. We cannot afford experimentation of some incompetent, inexperienced or shortsighted managers. An outstanding formidable team needs to come on board in 2023. The next president must have the track record of being able to put such team together and work effectively and efficiently with them. Nigeria and Nigerians will be better for it.
May God continue to protect us and guide us aright.
God Bless Nigeria.
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