The Insight by Lateef Adewole
As I watched the investiture ceremony on Thursday, where the President-elect Bola Ahmed Tinubu was conferred and decorated with the highest National Honour of the land, GCFR and his vice, Senator Shettima, with the second highest, GCON, by President Muhammadu Buhari, as well as handing over of national documents to Tinubu, it feels just like yesterday, when similar honour was adorned on Buhari by the former President Jonathan. The power transfer is already taking place. Taking oaths of office is what remains.
By the end of the tomorrow, Buhari will cease to be the all powerful president of the Federal Republic of Nigeria and the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed forces as the new President Bola Tinubu (GCFR) is sworn-in. It is already eight solid years, just like that. How transient power can be and everything for that matter. In the manner of his exit next Monday, so was his entrance on that faithful day on 29th May, 2015. It was so colourful, with a lot of excitement and expectations. I could remember the well applauded famous quote from his inaugural speech: “I belong to everybody and I belong to nobody”. Did he live up to that? All is in the past now.
His own case was very peculiar. Everything about his ascension was awesome. He was the first candidate of an opposition party to ever defeat an incumbent president in Nigeria’s history. His victory ended the sixteen year unbroken reign of the then ruling PDP, now in opposition. That was after he had attempted three times in previous elections, before he won on that fourth attempt. So, many people expected much from him having gone through such rigor to get it and exhibited such determination to “serve” the people.
Not many people were in doubt that he must have had his visions and plans for the country and how he hoped to execute and achieve them. Up to that time too, his personality was unrivalled among the living leaders in Nigeria. He was like a “demigod”, with cult-following, especially in the northern Nigeria. That was what attracted him to the political juggernauts which led to forming a formidable opposition party, APC, by the merger of four individual opposition parties. Tinubu was a leader and among the architects of that merger.
With Buhari’s previous election records, the new party leaders knew their best bet was to present him as their flag bearer. He had about 12 million vote bank which was concentrated majorly in his own region, the north, but he never won because he lacked the required political structure to deliver a pan Nigerian victory to be president. That was where Tinubu and others came in and plugged the gap. The rest, as they say, is history.
The campaign cardinals of Buhari since 2015 were Security, Economy and Anti-corruption (SEA). Many did not doubt him on two; security, being a retired general and former military head of state, who had dealt with similarly troubling insurgency and insecurities in the past while in the military, when they happened at those times. Also the anti-corruption crusade. He was most revered as an incorruptible person. His exploits in fighting corruption during his 20 month reign between 1983 and 1985 remained vivid in the minds of those who witnessed it and still alive. He is so trusted that it earned him the title of “Mai Gaskia” (honest person) among his admirers.
On economy, that was not his strength. However, as a government, there were millions of competent hands available to him, home and abroad, who he could engage to handle it. All that was needed was for him to provide leadership and direction to them. So, in all of these, both where he is strong and weak, did he deliver on his promises? Has met the expectations of millions of Nigerians who hinged their hope on him? Is he leaving the country better than he met it in 2015? Larger majority will answer these questions in the negative.
There are, and there will always be, a minority, who will disagree with the majority about such assertion. They will go to any length to defend him, praise his government, and say things are quite better. Such people are often the problems of leaders. They shield them from the truth. There are many reasons for them to act as such. One, we don’t really expect most, if not all, members of his cabinet to criticise a government they have been part of. These are the front runners who will defend their government, even if the contrary is so glaring to them. Same as many others who might not be appointees but have benefitted very well from the government.
However, government is not for these few alone. As democracy is defined; “government of the people, by the people, and for the people”. Did Buhari’s administration meet these three requirements? Was his a government of the people? Well, we can say yes, since he is a democratically elected president. The people voted for him. Was his a government by the people? This can substantially be said to be in affirmative too. Afterall, it is human beings, Nigerians, who ran the government, from ‘top to bottom’. To the last leg of the definition. Was that government for the people? This is where the cross is. Majority will deny that it was not for them. And that assessment would be based on how the government has impacted their lives in the last 8 years.
Before I go on, let me make something clear, it has been in the nature of Nigerians to praise past governments and criticise the incumbent as being worse than the previous ones, may be with the exception of the era of the late General Murtala Muhammed. However, he did not live long enough to be adequately evaluated. People based their praise on the short period he ruled as a military head of state (August 1975 to January 1976). Just about six months. Although, when more critically analysed, there were some actions he took that actually led to a more long-term damages to the country. Like the case of mass retrenchment in the civil service that saw many seasoned beauracrats and administrators pushed out untimely. That distruption led to the dysfunctional Civil Service that followed till date. And so on.
Back to Buhari. As Nigerians, is our life better today than 2015? As a person and Nigerian, I will boldly say no! In fact, there were things that happened and the extent of damages that we saw, that we could only previously imagined. There is none of the tripod of his campaign I can personally give him a pass mark. He performed abysmally below expectations in them.
In truth, like I have written in many of my past articles, Buhari’s administration did well in infrastructures. Road and rail top them. Up till this Tuesday when they had their Extraordinary Federal Executive Council meeting, which was also valedictory, many projects were still commissioned. Three critical bridges, including the second Niger bridge, named after Buhari, were commissioned. Over 200km dual carriage expressway from Kaduna to Kano was commissioned. Three Federal Secretariats in Akwa, Yenagoa, and Gasau were commisioned.
In the last 8 years, the administration has completed 9,290 km of roads and undertook repairs and construction of 37 bridges. Thousands of others are still being repaired, reconstructed, expended and or newly built. Also, 8,938 federal housing units have been delivered across the country.
If there is anything the administration received accolades for, it is infrastructure. Many young Nigerians have never seen trains work in their country until now. The Abuja-Kaduna rail that was almost done under Jonathan was completed and put to use massively. It was a delight to travel in as I once did too, until that unfortunate terrorist attack on it in March 28, 2022. The administration proceeded to build more rail lines across the country and put them to good use. Lagos-Abeokuta-Ibadan. Itakpe-Ajaokuta-Warri. Many others are under construction.
Although, there is yet to be any significant improvement in power supply, there are serious revolutionary efforts going on that will drastically change the power infrastructure and delivery system once completed. The benefits of contracts and MOUs that have been awarded and or signed with international companies will soon begin to manifest, hopefully. There were many interventions made in agriculture to enhance food security. Unfortunately, many of them were not effectively and efficiently implemented to achieve set objectives. The actual practice of industrialised agriculture was hampered by the insecurities.
I just saw some pictures yesterday showing some aeroplanes bearing Nigerian Airways. I was surprised. I just asked: “does it mean Hadi Sirika delivered on his promise?” It has been a common joke how Nigerian Airways only existed in the Minister of Aviation, Hadi Sirika’s computer. But if this news is true, then, he deserves to be commended. Same as Buhari, for fulfilling that promise. The administration upraged many airports. Few to International Airport, like Akanu Ibiam Airport, Enugu. New mordern terminals were built in some others. Runways repaired. We can be proud of many of our airports now. The credits for all these go to Buhari and his appointees.
While all these lofty achievements were for the benefits of Nigerians, are they their priorities? Roads, rails, agriculture, etc., are important to the people. But, how do you use and enjoy them if you are constantly worried if you will be alive in the next minute? The insecurities in Nigeria reached unprecedented level during this administration. In 2015, Boko Haram insurgency was our biggest security problem. There were cattle rustling, farmer-herder clashes, kidnappings, etc., but they were never in the proportion we have witnessed in the last eight years. Life has become almost worthless.
Killings are now recorded in hundreds and thousands. Since bandry entered our security lexicon, the dynamics have changed. These bandits ruled the forests, the highways, the farms, the communities and some towns. They are deadlier, more virulent and preponderant than the boko haram. Worse still, they operate with impunity and were treated with kid’s gloves for a very long time, until recently, just before the elections when the security agents woke up to crush them.
Sadly, after the elections, we have been witnessing their resurgence. Over 500 people have been killed within two months in Benue, Plateau and Kaduna states alone and over a thousand kidnapped. A report in Vangard of May 20, 2023, stated that about 63,110 people have been killed since 2015. This is horrendous. It is unacceptable. It was such mass killings, mass abductions that characterised the larger part of Buhari’s administration. Security of life and properties of the citizens is the first constitutional responsibility of the government. Buhari failed woefully in that. It is a person who is alive that will travel on smooth roads, in beautiful trains and through world class airports.
Figures don’t lie. Facts are stubborn. If various economic statistics today are compared to 2015, the difference that indicates negative trajectory is staggering. There are some positive ones, like Foreign Reserve. It was $28.6bn in 2015 but now $35.3bn, and minimum wage from N18,000. to N30,000. per month. However, too many others were on downward spiralling. 2015 vs 2023: Exchange rate N183.5/$ to N462.3/$ (official) and N220/$ to N755/$ (unofficial). Inflation 9.01% to 22.29%. Unemployment 9.9% to 40.6%. National debts N12.12 trillion to N46 trillion. Petrol subsidy N914 billiion to N6.72 trillion.
Our national budget has also increased from N4.5 trn to N21.8 trn. Yet, commodity costs, prices of goods and services have skyrocketed. Despite the criminally outrageous subsidy payments, we now buy petrol at N180-250 per litre against N87/L in 2015. Diesel N135/L to N800/L. Kerosene N47/L to N1100/L. Cooking gas N224/kg to N850/kg. Rice N7000/ 50kg to N36,000/ 50kg. Satchet milo and milk for poor people, seen being drank by Buhari and Osinbajo in 2015 in a viral photo at the time, which used to cost N20 each, is now N80. We cannot begin to list all items and consumables used by the citizens. Most of these increments are up to or more than 500%. Yet, the minimum wage only increased by 66.7%. Why won’t more Nigerians be thrown into poverty?
This led the country to become the poverty capital of the world. About 133 million people are estimated to be suffering from multi-dimensional poverty.
It is understandable that within the period in question, there were some global incidents beyond the administration’s control that affected the life of the people. There were multiple global crude oil price crashes. It actually inherited low crude oil price of less than $48.66 per barrel in 2015. Covid-19 also struck. It threw the world into global health and other socioeconomic crises, to which Nigeria was not immuned. This led to plunge in oil price in 2020 too. Many countries never or have not recovered from it till date. Many declared bankruptcy, needing rescue from the World Bank and IMF. Nigeria went through two recessions within four years (2016-2020).
However, the unfortunate Russian-Ukraine since February 2022, pushed the world trying to recover from Covid-19 calamity, to an edge once more. While the crisis presented economic opportunities for many oil producing nations around the world, who were smiling to the bank, as oil price shot to highest levels in eight years, reverse was the case with Nigeria. While National Oil companies declared unprecedented earnings to their countries, like Saudi Aramco ($161.1bn), our own NNPC or NNPCL was declaring losses. Many months, they reported zero contribution to national purse (FAAC), despite being the cash cow of the country. It was disastrous.
President Buhari has ran his own race and will hand over the baton of leadership to Tinubu on Monday. This should be a reminder and admonition to the incoming president that power is transient. In no time, four years will be over and we will begin to assess their own performances too, vis-a-vis all their promises, just like this. Tinubu’s job is well cut out for him with all these worrisome indices earlier highlighted.
Those of us who believe in him and believe that he can do it, did not do so because we think he is a “magician” who will “magically” change Nigeria from the present state to Eldorado. No! But we believe he has what it takes to halt the downward slide and begin to turn things around positively. He has done it before, in a micro way in Lagos, he can do it again in mega way in Nigeria as a whole. We can only pray for him and wish him success. “Eni wi pe ki aye dara, oun nikan ko lo ma gbe be” (he who wants the world to be better, not only him will live there).
We wish President Buhari a peaceful and blissful retirement, as he bows out on Monday.
May God continue to protect us and guide us aright.
God Bless Nigeria.
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May 27, 2023.