Dr. Abdulkareem Onakoya,
Department of Political Science,
Lagos State University of Education,
Oto-Ijanikin,
(Epe Campus).
Tel:- 08026621805
onakoyaa@lasued.edu.ng
10th March, 2023.
Politics has been defined by scholars as the factor which determines “who gets ‘what’, ‘when’ and ‘how’. This academic trajectory has better positioned the Lagos politics above others in terms of its ingenuity and physical skills of the occupiers of the exalted seat in the state past and present.
Since the birth of the state in May 1967, its erstwhile status as a Colony following the declaration of the Acting British Consul, Williams McCoskry , Oba Dosunmu and Commander Beddingfield which led to the signing of the Lagos Treaty of Cession on 5th March, 1852 and being the former Federal Capital Territory, it has served several other factors not limited to mere financial hub but also, the house of the ‘who were who’ and the ‘who is who’ in the country.
His past and present governors through the colonial era unto the military regimes have been CAREFULLY selected/elected to fit in into the very technical office of state.
From the times of Sir Williams McConskry who acted between 6th August, 1861 and 22nd January, 1862, also Sir Henry Stanhope Freeman (1862 – 1865) and Sir John Hawley Glover (1865 – 1872) and later Sir Gilbert Thomas Carter (1891 – 1897) and Sir Walter Egerton (1903 – 1906), competence and capability were chosen above other pre-modals and sentiments.
At birth in 1967, most of the military administrators were seconded based on their track records in the ‘Khaki business’ and efforts to maintain the glorious balance of the centre of excellence.
The first was Brig. Mobolaji Johnson who performed excellently between May 1967 and July 1975. Then followed by Commodore Adekunle Lawal (1975 – 1977), Commodore Ndubusi Kanu (1977 – 1978), Commodore Ebitu Ukiwe (1978 – 1979), Air Commodore Gbolahan Mudasiru (1984 – 1986), Navy Captain Mike Aikhigbe (1986 – 1988), Brig. Gen. Raji Rasaki (1988 – 1992) Col. Olagunsoye Oyinlola (1993 – 1996) and Colonel Muhammad Buba Marwa (1996 – 1999). These men were known for their brilliant military experience and administrative acumen by the then various military governments which appointed them.
The democratically elected governors who have served the state at one time or the other have made their impacts registered on the milestone of the state of aquatic splendour.
Alhaji Lateef Jakande who was the first Executive Governor between 1979 and 1983 would be remembered for his laudable projects which cut across the education, social, housing, agricultural and industrial sectors. A brief but impactful leadership of Sir Michael Otedola between 1992 and 1993 was followed by Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu (1999 – 2007), Mr. Babatunde Fashola (2007 – 2015), Mr. Akinwunmi Ambode (2015 – 2019) and the incumbent, Mr. Babajide Sanwo-Olu (2019 till date). All served and still serving meritoriously for the state to keep her balance in the comity of states in the nation.
Having scored so much in terms of good governance and bringing the dividends to the people, the state can not afford loosing out of these feats to a non-experienced politician whose intention to ‘take over’ the state came out of cheap political propaganda and malicious intent.
However, what gladdens my heart is that the contest is likely to be in favour of the incumbent barring all permutations and socio-political statistics which could include among others;
(a) THE AGE FACTOR;
Governor Babajide Sanwoolu is a not too old for re-election. He is in his 50s. He remains active mentally, physically and emotionally. Age will work in his favour. The youths will prefer him above others.
(b) THE FACTOR OF RELIGION
He is a Christian and his deputy being a Muslim. This composition seems okay with the anti-muslim/muslim agitators as was shown in the last presidential election. So, there is a religious balance here.
(c) THE FACTOR OF PERFORMANCE
Mr. Sanwoolu has performed evidently in the last 3 years , ten months since he assumed office. A lot of landmark and remarkable capital projects are being carried out by his administration. Ranging from overhead bridges to rail lines, roads and so many more were either completed or commenced by his administration. Some which include; the completion of the Ijebu-Ode/Epe expressway, Eleko/Epe expressway, Mike 2/Iyana-Oba expressway etc.
(d) CIVIL SERVANT-FRIENDLINESS
The governor has been perceived as civil servant-friendly. He promised an increment in the salaries of all the categories of civil/public servants a couple of months ago. He pays all categories of leave bonuses and all other fringe benefits to the civil servants in Lagos State. He pays the pensions and arrears of the pensioners in the state. He provided easy transportation for the work-force. He continued the easy promotion method which Governor Ambode started. Prompt payment of salaries and other emoluments and benefits by the state workers. Lagos civil servants will prefer a “known devil” to an “unknown angel”.
(e) THE FACTOR OF THE YORUBA HERITAGE
Lagos is the heritage of Yoruba nation. All the Yoruba-speaking people of Lagos will be moved by this sentiment, and will rise to defend this heritage during the polls.
(f) THE FACTOR OF THE MEGA CITY STATUS AND THE LAGOS MASTERPLAN;
Lagos is moving towards the mega city status. There is the need for continuity in the implementation of the working masterplan of Lagos. From Alhaji Jakande to Asiwaju Tinubu to Fashola, Ambode to Sanwoolu, Lagos has a developmental trajectory that must not be broken or truncated, at least for now, since it is yielding positive results. That’s why Lagos electorates have continuously voted for one party since 1999.
(g) THE FACTOR OF THE PERSONALITY OF THE GOVERNOR.
Sanwoolu is a completely unassuming gentleman, you can’t but love him. He understands the people and respects them. He’s not arrogant. People believe in him. He argues less but believes in positive ideas and innovative methods. This will also work in his favour.
(h) THE FACTOR OF THE DEFEAT OF THE APC;
The defeat of APC in the presidential election will call for a genuine introspection of the analysis of why the party lost an important election in its stronghold. This will lead to a renewed vigour to block all the loopholes and strategise on how to win the governorship election.
(i) THE FACTOR OF THE IGBO ENTITLEMENT MENTALITY;
Some of the Igbos in Lagos have amplified this mentality that Lagos is no man’s land, and that they will control Lagos politics as they control its business. In fact, they claimed that they developed Lagos and therefore have a right to its governorship. This claim has aroused some ethnic sentiments which will significantly ethnicise the election. All the Yoruba-speaking Lagosians will close ranks and rise to vote against such unguarded entitlement.
(j) THE FACTOR OF THE ETHNIC IDENTITY OF THE LP CANDIDATE;
Until now, this wasn’t an issue. But the moment LP won Lagos, it became a serious issue on the agenda. Allegation is on the rife that the LP Candidate does not only have Igbo blood, but he’s identified with the IPOB struggle. His tweets in the past years are being used against him. He is alleged to have supported gay right at a time and he is alleged to represent anything anti-Yoruba. This will park ethnic sentiments that may work against him. The LP Candidate can’t even speak Yoruba fluently. People wonder how he will address the people in the hinterland.
(k) THE FACTOR OF THE EMERGENCE OF THE PRESIDENT-ELECT, BOLA TINUBU;
Asiwaju’s victory will also work for the governor. The psychological effect is that, Lagos will experience more developments if Sanwoolu wins. Federal government-Lagos State relationship will be defined by symmetry, and this will sway voters. Lagosians understand the benefits of being with the federal government under Tinubu.
Yes, it is expected to be a tight race but I have a compelling inkling that Sanwo-Olu will win the race.