The Insight by Lateef Adewole
In the past two months, since after the presidential election, I have done reviews of the performances of the top three leading presidential candidates; Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, who won the election and is the president-elect now, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, the first runner-up and Mr. Peter Obi, who came third. There were 18 candidates that vied for the post. Apart from Alhaji Rabiu Musa Kwakwanso of NNPP, who came a distance 4th position, and whose party also has a governor in a very important state at that, Kano, and some lawmakers at both national and state levels, the remaining 14 candidates only made up the numbers.
Their performances were inconsequential. Even some known faces and regular “election customer(s)” among them could not pull off any magic. All the remaining 14 candidates put together could not score 2 million votes. These were candidates and parties that wanted to win a national election. Preposterous!
But for democracy that allows for the freedom of association and free formation of political parties, I have been of opinion that we do not need as many parties as we usually have in Nigeria. Their presence, most often, amounts to a waste of resources. We all saw the length of the ballot papers which had to, compulsorily, include these fringe parties, even when over 90% of voters didn’t even know their names, not to talk of their candidates.
The implication of such cumbersome arrangement is that there is increase in probability of error on the part of the electoral body while printing these ballot papers. There could be omission(s) of any or some of these small parties completely, their name(s) or their logo(s) or wrong representation of their name(s) or and logo(s). Such errors, if they occur, are valid grounds to cancel an election, based on the constitution. Can we imagine the magnitude of the consequences of such, if it happened in a national election as the presidential, especially after the whole process has been completed and a winner declared?
A party, which might not scored up to 0.001% of the total votes, if realised their name or and logo was omitted, could demand for cancellation, in a country where elections, particularly the presidential, has been taken as “do-or-die” affair. Such could trigger a national crisis of monumental proportion, which is unnecessary and avoidable in a few party democracy.
So, my advocacy is that Nigeria does not need more than few parties, if not two, but not more than five. It is on record, historically, that only two to three parties always performed reasonably well in all elections. Two or three were usually the leading contenders. This has also been shown consistently to be so over the decades. Before independence, Nigeria had about four prominent parties; AG, NPC, NCNC, NEPU among nine. After independence in 1963 elections, we had 18 parties but only UPGA (from NCNC and a faction of AG) and NNDP (from NPC and the other faction of AG), were prominent.
In 1979, we had UPN, NPN, NPP, GNPP, PRP and NAP. In 1993, we had two clear political parties that were decreed into place by the “evil genius”. They were SDP and NRC. The elections conducted under that arrangement, the June 12 presidential election in particular, is still adjudged to be the best, freest and fairest in the our election history. Although, it was criminally annulled, which threw Nigeria into political crisis for many years to follow.
By the turn of the millennium and at the inception of the 4th republic, there were many parties but the prominent ones were; AD, PDP, and APP. These were the foundational parties from where all subsequent parties emerged as they transform from one to another, with preponderance of cross carpeting by politicians, in what is popularly called “political prostitution”. This was made so easy because of the thin line in ideological differences among these parties or lack of it, in some instances.
In 2003, we had AD, PDP and ANPP and two new parties emerged; APGA from the South East, promoted by the former Biafra Warlord, the “Gburugburu” himself, Dim Chukuwuemeka Odumegu Ojukwu and Labour Party. By 2007, AD was dead and AC emerged, alongside PDP and ANPP. In 2011, AC became ACN. CPC emerged from ANPP while PDP remained. In 2015, while PDP had remained consistent and in power at the centre since 1999, the main opposition parties came together and merged to present a formidable front.
Even when it was obvious that most of them were strange bed fellows with clear ideological differences, they realised, based on past experiences, that the only way they could make any progress or any impact and achieve anything in that elections was to set aside their differences and come together to confront a “common enemy”, the PDP, which was already a political behemoth, stangulating the country and nothing seems could be done to extricate the country from their grip. They became so arrogant with power that they once boasted that they will rule the country for 60 years consecutively.
As the holy books say, “igberaga lo n siwaju iparun” (pride comes before the fall). By 2015, the major opposition parties; ACN, ANPP, CPC, a faction of APGA led by Governor Okorocha of Imo State at the time, merged and formed what exists till date as APC. The PDP also suffered a partial implosion where substantial members of the party left to join the newly formed opposition party. They included five sitting governors, former vice president Atiku, Speaker of the House of Representatives, Tambuwa, many prominent party leaders and members across the country.
This weakened the PDP’s hold on the country and its political prowess, despite being in power with President Jonathan as the incumbent. PDP went to that election a divided house, in something that mirrored what just happened in 2023. As expected, it portend a catastrophe and that was what happened. PDP lost the presidential election to the opposition in an historic election. That was unprecedented. That was how we got here. 2019 was just a continuation with APC as the ruling party and PDP as the main opposition party.
All through this history, politicians were freely and fluidly moving from one party to another, in the pursuit of their personal ambitions. Those who have never really moved from one party to another are not many. Tinubu is one of them. He has remained consistent in the political ideology he pursued since 1999, by not crossing from his base party to any opposition. Rather, he, with like minds, continuously evolved, by transforming their base party, with continuous change in name as the times demanded.
Majority of others have traversed almost all the parties. In the essence of political party stability, PDP has remained the most stable, most consistent, and most resilient party in Nigeria since 1999. It is the only party which is not built around a few. It has survived all the rough and tough times, and still remained standing. That’s the definition of a true political party. How it is now administered is another matter entirely.
With this historical background, one could see that only two parties often performed very well in all our past elections. There were few times where one or two other parties also did well on the fringes. So, as we were going into 2023 election, well, before 2019 actually, the clamour for a third force became loud. Many prominent personalities, technocrats, who were not necessarily traditional politicians, often make efforts to establish an alternative platform to the ruling party APC and the main opposition party PDP.
This third force efforts were not as successful because, most often, the people who eventually dominate such platforms were from the other existing parties. Like it is said, you can take a pig out of the mud but you cannot take the mud out of the pig. Most politicians don’t seek political offices based on altruism. Not necessarily for service to the people and the country but for self aggrandisement. So, their selfish ambitions often get in the way of a successful third force.
However, something dramatic, or even magical, nearly happened in 2022, as we moved towards 2023 general elections. From the traditionally entrenched political parties, two other parties’ candidates emerged that became forceful in the contest. Mr. Peter Obi, who has been a prominent PDP member for previous eight years and vice presidential candidate to Atiku in 2019, after being two term governor of Anambra State on the platform of APGA, left PDP at the last minute to join another party, Labour Party. This changed the dynamics.
Earlier, another prominent PDP member, Alhaji Rabiu Musa Kwakwanso, had left to form a new party NNPP. He is a two term former governor of Kano state, where he became a “demigod” with his Kwakwansiya movement, under PDP, later APC, before returning to PDP. The contest became a 4-horse race, made it more interesting and more competitive.
However, closer political watchers knew that if any meaningful impact would have to be made by the newly emerged political forces, they needed to converge. Despite that there was what was called CUPP (Coalition of United Political Parties), they existed only to criticise the ruling party APC in press conferences, with many of their leaders simply grandstanding. They did not have the maturity to be able to galvanise themselves, shelving their differences to form a common front that could confront APC.
We saw all the brickbats between Obi’s Labour Party and Kwakwanso’s NNPP during the campaigns. Many felt a good chance would have been to have the two of them come together to contest on one platform, but they failed to agree. Everyone wanted to be the president. Neither of them was prepared to sacrifice their ambition for the greater benefits and success. My position then was that Kwakwanso should have stepped down and deputised Obi.
My opinion was predicated on the general sentiment that after eight years of President Buhari, a northerner, it is only fair that power goes to the south. Therefore, “South L’okan”. Hence, making Obi the presidential candidate with a Kwakwanso as the vice would have been more potent. I also believed that Labour Party is more prominent and well known than Kwakwanso’s new less-known NNPP. Labour Party has existed for about 20 years and had produced a governor and other lawmakers in the past.
Again, Obi, being an Igbo man, would likely control that bloc vote while Kwakwanso had Atiku and Tinubu to contend with, for the northerners’ votes. All these postulations proved to be accurate. Obi performed very well, far more than Kwakwanso, in the presidential election. Ceteris Paribus (all other things being equal), if Obi’s 6,101,533 votes is joined with Kwakwanso’s 1,496,687, the combined votes will be 7,598,220. It would have put them ahead of the PDP to the second position trailing the winner by only 1,196,506 votes. Although, many things might not be the same exactly, in both positive and negative ways.
The point I am making is that, such effort would have shown genuineness on their parts as truly wanting a third force, an alternative platform for the Nigerian people to “take their country back”, though I didn’t really believe in that farce, not with the composition of the same alternative party or parties. It will take more than a last minute defection to another party, from the same party that were said to be responsible for the woes of the people and the country, to build a true third force.
The achievements by Obi in the last election has been thoroughly analysed. It could not be said to be premised on a genuine and patriotic effort. The campaign strategies, the rhetorics, the voting pattern and the eventual outcome, were not something that could birth a “truly new Nigeria” as being mouthed. A politics that threw up the most dangerous political divide along religious and tribal lines could not give birth to a great future for a country like Nigeria, with her high sensitivity to these fault lines.
Worse still, while many commended the unexpected performance of Obi in that election, despite the identfied flaws in his approach, his tribesmen and women have worsened his case. After a clear loss of the presidential election by coming a distance third and trailing the winner by over 2.6 million votes, the way they have since carried on and conducted themselves have exposed more underlying danger of having him as a president of Nigeria.
It did not take long before his rabid, desperate and reckless supporters started exhibiting what some were worried about from the beginning. They began to potray that election as what they had hoped as a means to another end, different from what was manifestly presented all along. The ethnicising of Obi and his purportedly “stolen mandate” raised red flags. We have seen how they have threatened the peace of the country and put our democracy at risk. All such actions are detrimental, not to the present only, but the future chances of such a movement. Many now view them with suspicion.
It will take quite some time to regain such trust and confidence reposed in him in the last election by people from other ethnic extractions. I can bet on it that if election is to be repeated today, Obi might not score half of what he got on 25th of February. This is the damage that they have done to that effort. It has been wasted. This is in addition to many revelations coming out since then. The alleged dubious activities of the party leadership, now suspended, who were accused of forging documents, court papers, etc, in their “party candidates’ substitution rackets”. These are not people who can bring about that desired change. They are as “dirty” as the people they want to displace. A case of the pot calling the kettle black.
Imagine if all that efforts were truly nationalistic and driven by selfless leaders and candidates, with more effectively coordinated backing from Nigerian workers, who make up the various labour unions that associated themselves with the party, and it is built of true socialist ideology, as labour unions always clamour for, the result could have been phenomenal and more far-reaching. But, were the labour unions sincere themselves?
Recently, I read their comment about removal of subsidy, as being contemplated by this administration. They claim that they will resist it. Sadly, these same labour unions were part of the Labour Party. In fact, it is believed that it is their political platform. Their presidential candidate, Peter Obi was emphatic about his plan to also remove subsidy if elected as president. These unions were all aware but kept mum. What moral justification do they now have to demand otherwise or be threatening to fight it if another administration of another candidate who won, decides to implement the removal? That is the height of hypocrisy.
The elections have come and gone. Nigerians are only waiting to see the coming of the new administration, come May 29, 2023. Those who lost will have their days in court. We all await what comes out it. If any person or group of people ever desires to upset the status quo, especially the youths who thought, albeit wrongly, that they had a platform in Obidient movement, they need to be more organised.
An emergency heroism hardly achieved enduring legacy. It often takes a lot of efforts, time, dedication, resilience and commitment to achieve a trans-generational power transition. Julius Malema has not become the president of South Africa despite many years of his relentless pursuit. Yet, he has not given up. They need to be more organised against future attempts. They need not be discouraged by their disappointment now for backing the wrong horse. A 62 year old is also hardly a face to represent the youths. They can do better. A word is enough for the wise.
May God continue to protect us and guide us aright.
God Bless Nigeria.
You can follow me on:
Twitter: @lateef_adewole
Facebook: Lateef Adewole
Email: lateefadewole23@gmail.com
Whatsapp: +2348179512401
Share, forward and retweet, as sharing makes love go round!
April 15th, 2023