by Lateef Adewole
There is this overconfidence that the leaders and supporters of the two major parties; APC and PDP, exude about their chances of winning the 2023 presidential election. Ask anyone among them, they believe the win is already their kitty. I want to believe that is their political exuberant sides speaking. Every politician expected that they will win, and that is why they throw their hats in the ring in the first place. That explained the participation of many in the recently concluded presidential primaries.
SEE: MY JOURNEY IN THE FORESTS OF A THOUSAND DAEMONS (2)
The die is cast. As at the close of yesterday, Friday, most presidential candidates have picked their running mates while some others simply have “dummies” (place holders), and their parties submitted their details to INEC to beat the deadline of 17th of June, stipulated in the electoral programmes time table. After much intrigues, consultations and negotiations, the PDP candidate, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, chose Governor Ifeanyi Okowa of Delta State as his running mate. The APC chose Kabiru Masari and Labour Party chose Doyin Okupe, as place holders.
In the 23 years of our democratic experiment since the coming of the fourth republic, there have always been two major parties that made meaningful impacts in our political space. Few others did make some fringe impacts. In 1999, PDP and AD/APP alliance were the two parties that serious fought for the presidency. In 2003, PDP and ANPP were the only major survivors as PDP crushed AD in five states of South-West where they previously existed. Only Lagos State of Tinubu survived.
In 2007, PDP and ANPP remained prominent, with AD transforming to AC only in Lagos State. In 2011; PDP and ACN, from Tinubu’s AC, recovering four other South-West states and Edo, still under the leadership of Tinubu, were prominent with CPC making inroad in the presidential election with the towering influence of General Muhammadu Buhari at the time. By 2015, some opposition parties came together to form APC, to confront and displaced PDP. In 2019, APC and PDP were most prominent.
We are now on our journey to 2023. As usual, 18 parties are hoping to be on the ballot with 17 of them having presidential candidates. But, how much impact can most of them make in the elections? Without doubt, we already have two well established and strong contenders in the ruling APC and the main opposition party PDP. The talk about a third force has remained a recurring decimal in the country everytime that elections are coming.
As of now, we have a Labour Party (LP) that landed a big fish in having Peter Obi as their presidential candidate. Also, a lesser known party NNPP has Alhaji Rabiu Musa Kwakwanso as their candidate. There are others from which much are actually not expected, with all due respect to important personalities that populate them. It is a well known fact that most of them are not beyond portfolios. Some within a state or a region. They are unknown nationally and they also do not have nationally recognised faces and politically influential personalities as their presidential candidates like LP and NNPP.
While many Nigerians actually crave for another political platform to support and use to replace the ruling party APC as they wish to also boycott the main opposition party PDP, which did not fare well while in government too, the inability of these other parties to come together is denying the people such alternative third force. We know how much Peter Obi has been trending, especially on social media. We know how his candidacy has been generating huge enthusiasm across the southern Nigeria, especially among the youths. If election is to hold on social media today, Obi will be our next president. Sadly, election does not hold on social media.
I have been challenged to do an analysis of the chances of the candidates, especially when I expressed my candid opinion as I just stated in the previous paragraph. Many believed I was not being realistic because of the noise all over social media about how Nigerians want to be “OBIdient”, and that there is now a Peter Obi Revolutionary Movement and all sorts.
Personally, I love Peter Obi for his financial discipline. I have talked about his many amazing actions that depict prudence and quality leadership in many occasions. He is a kind of president that Nigeria needs to help glot the bleeding that Nigeria is currently experiencing. He is also someone who demonstrates practicality in his plans. I have watched countless of his interviews where he identified problems facing Nigeria, proferred practicable solutions to them and always cited countries with similar scenarios and how they solve same problems. He is a pragmatic person.
It was in the same light that he must have decided to visit Egypt to study their power system and some other things in three days, and see how he could replicate same in Nigeria to solve our power problem. What a practical man! But, was that at the right time? With due respect, my comment when I saw that tweet from him about his trip was that; “this is misplacement of priorities”. Why do I say so?
While that trip was commendable, at the middle of serious politicking, leaving the theatre of activities is not a good political move. This week, parties are doing everything to get the best candidates to be their running mates through series of political meetings with stakeholders, to be able to arrive at more widely acceptable consensus, so as to avoid miscalculation.
We saw the level of involvement of the two leading candidates; Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu and Alhaji Atiku Abubakar. It was at such a time that another presidential candidate chose to travel abroad. That only reinforced the notion that he lacks the depth of politics required to win a presidential election and to govern in a very complex country like Nigeria. Being a president is beyond capacity to run some mundane things. It’s huge!
The two strong candidates next to the Tinubu and Atiku cannot provide the alternative as third force, running as individuals. Their best chance would be to come together and join forces. A Peter Obi and Kwakwanso on a single ticket would have sent shivers down the spines of APC and PDP. Rather, each of these prefer to go it alone because everyone wants to be the president. No one wants to step down for another.
In line with my resolute position on power shift to the south, I will like to see a Peter Obi as the presidential candidate and Rabiu Musa Kwakwanso as his running mate, on the platform of Labour Party, which still has more prominence than NNPP and larger footsoldiers. Such a combination will seriously boost their chances as it will not only consolidate their strong hold in their respective territories but will attract so many uncommitted and undecided voters. It will also help spread their network wider across the country.
With the popularity of Obi in the south, he will lock down Southeast, substantial part of South-South and little impact in South-West, far more than PDP. In the north, Kwakwanso is influential in North West, some impacts in North East and North Central. Many Nigerians who are tired of APC and PDP will likely vote for them as a breath of fresh air. This combination has a greater potential to win. But, are they ready to sacrifice their ambition for greater good? And in this case, it is Kwakwanso who will do so. Without this, these two will only play spoiler roles. They are going nowhere near Aso Rock as our president, come 2023. They can’t win as individuals. My verdict!
I expect rabid attacks from the supporters of Peter Obi who are known to pounce on whoever disagrees with their self-stimulating opinions and fantasies about an Obi presidency being a done deal, but I am a realist and this is my personal opinion. So, what are the chances of the other two leading candidates, I might be asked? I don’t think doing a comprehensive analysis of that can be accommodated in this article. It will be too lengthy. That will be in another article. However, I will do a glimpse into it.
I have warned that no one should celebrate too early. “Oun towa leyin Òffà, o ju Òjé lo” (places after Offa town, are many, more than Oje town). Winning the presidential election per se, is far beyond winning the primaries.That was just the first hurdle. But, supporters of each leading candidate are overly optimistic. The second hurdle to be crossed is choosing the right running mates by the candidates, with the attendant positive or negative consequences; another decision that can alter permutations at the general elections.
With Governor Okowa as the PDP running mate, his choice actually booster their chances. The target is to get votes from the South-South which is the most prominent PDP region now. The Cross Rivers state is a PDP state despite having an APC governor. His defection was anomaly. PDP is expected to do well than APC in that region, provided the obvious political differences among party leaders can be resolved. The Wike factor, who lost out at both the presidential and vice-presidential slots and the Ibori factor in Delta state and Niger Delta in general, need to be resolved.
It will take more convincing to get any vote in the South-East who will be expected to vote for Obi enmass. There are only two states under PDP in the region. This used to be a locked down region for PDP but not anymore. Like South East, little or not much should be expected from the South-West because, Governor Seyi Makinde of Oyo State won’t be able to convince his Yoruba people to vote against their brother, Tinubu, the candidate of APC.
One critical factor that will determine the success or otherwise of APC in the north is how loyal, their leaders and members to the party and candidate, starting from President Buhari, the governors and other elected officers, down to the local level. If they betray the party and surreptitiously support Atiku, it’s over for Tinubu. If they solidly stand by Tinubu and massively mobilise for him and the party, APC will win in most states across the north even if the margins are not too wide. Such solid support will neutralise the massive effect that Kwakwanso would have had in North West and Atiku in North East. APC will win more than others in North Central. Tinubu will massively win in Southwest, try in South-South but get sprinkled votes in South-East. The aggregate across the country will give him a win in overall.
If the solid support is not given, then, the pendulum will swing to Atiku. He might win the race. Atiku should do well in North East, but if the APC running mate eventually comes from that region, it will reduce PDP votes. North West will be shared among the three contenders from Tinubu, Atiku and Kwakwanso. North Central will be between APC and PDP largely.
In all, what is imperative is that INEC should provide a level playing ground for all parties to slug it out. It should conduct free, fair and credible elections. It is immoral that another northerner will become the next president after the eight years of President Buhari. In the spirit of justice, fairness and equity, I expect northerners to see reason why power must shift to the south. The progressive governors in APC showed leadership and displayed their love for the unity of the country when they unanimously pushed for the power shift to south during their presidential primary, something those in PDP, even from the south, failed to do.
It will be unacceptable that only a section of the country should continue to govern the country even under a democratic governments. Such might have been tolerated during the aberrations that military regimes represented. Nigeria is bigger than any person, ethnic group, or region. I look forward to any of the southern candidates of APC, Labour Party and others, to be supported by the northerners. We can only pray for the best person to win.
May God continue to protect us and guide us aright.
God Bless Nigeria.
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